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On February 15, 2023 — just a couple weeks away — The Chamber and USCS will host our economic lunch forum at the Cowell Haybarn. Our keynote speaker is Jon Haveman, a principal at Marin Economic Consulting: An economic research and consulting firm specializing in entrepreneurship and local economic issues. We mentioned this forum a couple months back to set the stage for a robust discussion on the national, state and local economy. Since the forum registration was launched, we are excited to announce that following Jon’s keynote remarks we’ll have a panel discussion with a distinguished group of economists. UCSC Campus Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor, Lori G. Kletzer, a professor of economics herself will moderate the panel. Our panel of experts includes: Robert Fairlie, Professor of Economics, Galina Hale, Professor of Economics and Bonnie Lipscomb, the City of Santa Cruz Economic Development Departments. The link to the registration page is here: https://web.santacruzchamber.org/events/UCSC-Economic-Forum-Luncheon-5329/details and the forum information appears in this eNews letter. We’ll cover topics about our economy such as how the Federal Reserve continues to tinker with rates to curb inflation, review the raising cost of products from food to petroleum, the cost of living in Santa Cruz County and understand how low unemployment is pressing local businesses as we climb out of the winter storms. What we do know is the shifting age patterns of workers can and will have a dampening effect on the make-up of our workforce. Boomers are retiring in a rapidly growing wave that started in 2020. In 2023 and 2024, we will see the largest waves of Boomers turn 65. An estimated 36 percent will not retire and elect to remain in the workforce. Nevertheless, expect many of the senior people in your workforce to retire and require replacements. This will lighten business healthcare expenses but could increase recruiting expenses. The consumer sentiment just before the Christmas holidays had Americans fighting back their frustrations with high prices. From a recent Forbes report: shopping started strong in October. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks sales across all payment types, holiday retail sales increased by 7.6% during November 1st to Christmas Eve. Shoppers were spending more in many categories — restaurant spending was up 15.1% compared to last year, clothing sales increased by 4.4%, in-store shopping was also up and saw an increase in sales of 6.8%, online sales increased 10.6%, while department stores only had a modest increase of 1% over 2021. Meanwhile other categories didn’t outperform last-year sales such as electronics, which saw a decrease of 5.3% and jewelry which saw a 5.4% sales decrease. Overall, holiday sales rose 7.6% this year: a slower pace than the 8.5% increase in 2021. However, Mastercard SpendingPulse had predicted a 7.1% so the results turned out better than anticipated. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity. Considering that the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas brings in more sales than any other time of year for most small businesses and holiday sales represent 20% of annual sales across most industries, this is a key time of year to keep an eye on. One take that I read recently from the Economist paints a pretty bleak global perspective on the state of world affairs, fueled by three shocks: Geo-Political (the conflict in Ukraine - Mr. Putin’s war), coupled with the strange decoupling between the world’s two biggest economies — America and China. Economist -- Nov. 2022. After the spike in energy prices and what the Economist calls the loss of macroeconomic stability: What happens next? It all depends on how these three shocks—geopolitical, energy and economic— evolve, and how they affect each other. Let’s see what our California based economists have to say about how these international and national issues have an impact on our state and local economy.
On February 15, 2023 — just a couple weeks away — The Chamber and USCS will host our economic lunch forum at the Cowell Haybarn. Our keynote speaker is Jon Haveman, a principal at Marin Economic Consulting: An economic research and consulting firm specializing in entrepreneurship and local economic issues. We mentioned this forum a couple months back to set the stage for a robust discussion on the national, state and local economy.
Since the forum registration was launched, we are excited to announce that following Jon’s keynote remarks we’ll have a panel discussion with a distinguished group of economists. UCSC Campus Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor, Lori G. Kletzer, a professor of economics herself will moderate the panel. Our panel of experts includes: Robert Fairlie, Professor of Economics, Galina Hale, Professor of Economics and Bonnie Lipscomb, the City of Santa Cruz Economic Development Departments. The link to the registration page is here: https://web.santacruzchamber.org/events/UCSC-Economic-Forum-Luncheon-5329/details and the forum information appears in this eNews letter.
We’ll cover topics about our economy such as how the Federal Reserve continues to tinker with rates to curb inflation, review the raising cost of products from food to petroleum, the cost of living in Santa Cruz County and understand how low unemployment is pressing local businesses as we climb out of the winter storms.
What we do know is the shifting age patterns of workers can and will have a dampening effect on the make-up of our workforce. Boomers are retiring in a rapidly growing wave that started in 2020. In 2023 and 2024, we will see the largest waves of Boomers turn 65. An estimated 36 percent will not retire and elect to remain in the workforce. Nevertheless, expect many of the senior people in your workforce to retire and require replacements. This will lighten business healthcare expenses but could increase recruiting expenses.
The consumer sentiment just before the Christmas holidays had Americans fighting back their frustrations with high prices. From a recent Forbes report: shopping started strong in October. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks sales across all payment types, holiday retail sales increased by 7.6% during November 1st to Christmas Eve. Shoppers were spending more in many categories — restaurant spending was up 15.1% compared to last year, clothing sales increased by 4.4%, in-store shopping was also up and saw an increase in sales of 6.8%, online sales increased 10.6%, while department stores only had a modest increase of 1% over 2021. Meanwhile other categories didn’t outperform last-year sales such as electronics, which saw a decrease of 5.3% and jewelry which saw a 5.4% sales decrease.
Overall, holiday sales rose 7.6% this year: a slower pace than the 8.5% increase in 2021. However, Mastercard SpendingPulse had predicted a 7.1% so the results turned out better than anticipated. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity. Considering that the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas brings in more sales than any other time of year for most small businesses and holiday sales represent 20% of annual sales across most industries, this is a key time of year to keep an eye on.
One take that I read recently from the Economist paints a pretty bleak global perspective on the state of world affairs, fueled by three shocks: Geo-Political (the conflict in Ukraine - Mr. Putin’s war), coupled with the strange decoupling between the world’s two biggest economies — America and China. Economist -- Nov. 2022.
After the spike in energy prices and what the Economist calls the loss of macroeconomic stability: What happens next? It all depends on how these three shocks—geopolitical, energy and economic— evolve, and how they affect each other.
Let’s see what our California based economists have to say about how these international and national issues have an impact on our state and local economy.