ARTICLE
The ink is not completely dry from the Santa Cruz County Election Officer voting tabulation for the June 7, 2022 primary election. The County will send the final results to the Secretary of State (SOS) today and barring any unusual issues, the SOS will certify the June 7 election results next week. We reported early voting results the first and second week after the primary. Most races were decided at that time, with only a couple of races in which the votes were too close to call an actual winner. In the end, it appears the City of Santa Cruz Measure F failed to get the necessary 50% + one vote, losing by 50 votes. This is a concern as we head into a fall November election cycle. With all tax measures and evaluation of the polling trends and voters’ appetite to be taxed for special needs — whether it is the .25 cent single-use plastic product tax, the County’s 1/2 cent Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT), or the City’s Measure F — I’m hearing more conversation about a slew of local tax measures making their way to the November ballot. At this point, we know that the City of Santa Cruz voters will see an Empty House Tax (EHT) Measure and a Measure to stop the Downtown Affordable Housing project from moving forward — the Our Downtown Our Future initiative. We’ve discussed that issue multiple times over the past six years and will continue to engage on that matter now that it has turned from a local city project to a November campaign issue. There are further discussions bandying about our county that the City of Capitola may also try an Empty House Tax similar to the City of Santa Cruz concept. Santa Cruz City Schools may look to place a measure on the November ballot to close the financial gap for school facilities improvement and a teacher housing project. And recently I’ve heard that Santa Cruz County is looking at another revenue measure for County Parks — funding for the homeless, transportation and park open space, and fire resilience. Of course, the devil is in the details for all of these potential local revenue measures. The process begins with county or city departments (and in some cases citizen-led discussions) to conceptualize the problem and how they find “new revenue” to address the financial shortfall to fix the problem. After conceptualizing the issue to form the framework, the very first question that occurs in backroom conversation is: “How do we frame the need in a series of programs, projects or policies so that if and when we place the measure on the ballot — the voter is being asked to support very important causes?” From homeless programs, affordable housing, park improvements and a variety of city or county special needs so the voter approval threshold avoids the 2/3 vote requirement for a single-issue measure. If carefully crafted, and using polling trends, the concept then becomes the “talking points” of the campaign. An example: Our polling trends show that 66% of those polled support addressing homeless and affordable housing. 76% support fire resilience, and 81% support improving our parks and access to them. The convincing polling information is constructed into ballot measure language that expresses that if an initiative with this combined framework is placed before the voters — 60% of the voters will support it. The critical question sometimes asked or framed in a ‘positive light’ convinces the county, city or citizen-led group that we can win a campaign with 50% + one majority of the vote. A different approach is a harder “push question” that relies on public perception and voter appetite and sometimes tightens the poll trends results toward 52% voter support. A key note to consider is the margin of error in the polling data which is based on the number of likely voters who took the poll. The given number needs to be above 500 and up to 1000 which shows a positive or negative probability of passage. Remember that a poll is the general opinion of the voters’ support or opposition to a measure. A poll conducted three months from today may be very different from one produced early in the election cycle. Polls are a speck of dust at one specific time and the results can be far different on election day. I have been involved in hundreds of campaigns from the national, congressional, state, and local levels to know that polls are only one tool in the campaign strategy chest. The other factors and more likely the most important are voters attitude, personal financial situation, and the outside influence of issues that impact their daily lives over which they have little to no control — i.e., inflation, gas prices, job security and living conditions, supply chain and increasing cost of consumerism — and consumer confidence that the nation, state or local region is headed in the right direction. All these factors play a significant role in voter turnout and voter confidence. Now let's talk about other election issues that will likely appear on the November ballot. We have elections for statewide officers from the Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Controller, Insurance Commissioner, etc., as well as US Senate and Congressional races, our local state Assembly races, plus state-wide ballot measures — a state constitutional amendment about abortion. California’s right to an abortion is based on a right to privacy in the state constitution. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade found the right to privacy does not guarantee the right to an abortion, concerning supporters that the state’s abortion laws could be vulnerable in state courts. This amendment, known as Proposition 1, would leave no doubt that abortion is legal in California. Two ballot initiatives would amend California's constitution to make it legal to bet on sports in California. But they would do it in different ways. Both would require the participation of federally recognized Native American tribes. One initiative, Proposition 26, would let people bet on sports at casinos operated by Native American tribes. It would also allow people to bet on sports at the state's four licensed horse racing tracks in Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. Another measure, Proposition 27, would let people use their phones to place bets on sports. A tax would first pay for regulatory costs, while 85% of what's left over would go to homelessness programs, and the remaining 15% would go to nonparticipating Native American tribes. This measure is supported by some sports betting companies. This initiative, Proposition 28, would require lawmakers to use 1% of all state funding for public schools for music and arts education programs. That would be between $800 million and $1 billion each year, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office. Proposition 31 asks voters whether a 2020 law that outlawed the sale of certain flavored tobacco products in California should take effect or be overturned. When the state Legislature passes a law, voters have the power to stop it from ever taking effect if they can gather enough signatures to put a referendum on the ballot. That’s what tobacco companies did after lawmakers passed a law in 2020 to outlaw certain flavored tobacco products, arguing the products were designed to appeal to children. The law was delayed until voters could decide in November. Ballot measure Proposition 29 would require a doctor, nurse practitioner or physicians’ assistant to be present during treatment at an outpatient kidney dialysis clinic. This will be the third consecutive general election where voters have been asked this question. The two previous measures failed. This measure is backed again by labor unions that represent health care workers. And again, kidney dialysis companies are opposing it. Some have suggested the subtext of these ballot initiatives reflects a broader battle of labor unions attempting to organize workers at the state’s more than 600 kidney dialysis clinics. So here we return to local tax initiatives. If I was running any of these campaigns, the first priority is to build a strong and wide coalition of support — including the various sectors of the business community. One just has to look at what happened to the 2022 Measure D and the City Measure F tax measure to see that polls don’t tell the full story. We are four months away from the November election, so a lot can happen between now and election day. I encourage any campaign to do their homework and really understand the voter’s attitude and don’t forget the role that the business community plays in our economic vitality — as a large percentage of any tax measure revenue comes from businesses and their consumers. We will write more on the November election cycle in the months and days ahead.
The ink is not completely dry from the Santa Cruz County Election Officer voting tabulation for the June 7, 2022 primary election. The County will send the final results to the Secretary of State (SOS) today and barring any unusual issues, the SOS will certify the June 7 election results next week.
We reported early voting results the first and second week after the primary. Most races were decided at that time, with only a couple of races in which the votes were too close to call an actual winner. In the end, it appears the City of Santa Cruz Measure F failed to get the necessary 50% + one vote, losing by 50 votes.
This is a concern as we head into a fall November election cycle. With all tax measures and evaluation of the polling trends and voters’ appetite to be taxed for special needs — whether it is the .25 cent single-use plastic product tax, the County’s 1/2 cent Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT), or the City’s Measure F — I’m hearing more conversation about a slew of local tax measures making their way to the November ballot. At this point, we know that the City of Santa Cruz voters will see an Empty House Tax (EHT) Measure and a Measure to stop the Downtown Affordable Housing project from moving forward — the Our Downtown Our Future initiative. We’ve discussed that issue multiple times over the past six years and will continue to engage on that matter now that it has turned from a local city project to a November campaign issue.
There are further discussions bandying about our county that the City of Capitola may also try an Empty House Tax similar to the City of Santa Cruz concept. Santa Cruz City Schools may look to place a measure on the November ballot to close the financial gap for school facilities improvement and a teacher housing project. And recently I’ve heard that Santa Cruz County is looking at another revenue measure for County Parks — funding for the homeless, transportation and park open space, and fire resilience. Of course, the devil is in the details for all of these potential local revenue measures.
The process begins with county or city departments (and in some cases citizen-led discussions) to conceptualize the problem and how they find “new revenue” to address the financial shortfall to fix the problem. After conceptualizing the issue to form the framework, the very first question that occurs in backroom conversation is: “How do we frame the need in a series of programs, projects or policies so that if and when we place the measure on the ballot — the voter is being asked to support very important causes?” From homeless programs, affordable housing, park improvements and a variety of city or county special needs so the voter approval threshold avoids the 2/3 vote requirement for a single-issue measure. If carefully crafted, and using polling trends, the concept then becomes the “talking points” of the campaign. An example: Our polling trends show that 66% of those polled support addressing homeless and affordable housing. 76% support fire resilience, and 81% support improving our parks and access to them. The convincing polling information is constructed into ballot measure language that expresses that if an initiative with this combined framework is placed before the voters — 60% of the voters will support it. The critical question sometimes asked or framed in a ‘positive light’ convinces the county, city or citizen-led group that we can win a campaign with 50% + one majority of the vote. A different approach is a harder “push question” that relies on public perception and voter appetite and sometimes tightens the poll trends results toward 52% voter support. A key note to consider is the margin of error in the polling data which is based on the number of likely voters who took the poll. The given number needs to be above 500 and up to 1000 which shows a positive or negative probability of passage. Remember that a poll is the general opinion of the voters’ support or opposition to a measure. A poll conducted three months from today may be very different from one produced early in the election cycle.
Polls are a speck of dust at one specific time and the results can be far different on election day. I have been involved in hundreds of campaigns from the national, congressional, state, and local levels to know that polls are only one tool in the campaign strategy chest. The other factors and more likely the most important are voters attitude, personal financial situation, and the outside influence of issues that impact their daily lives over which they have little to no control — i.e., inflation, gas prices, job security and living conditions, supply chain and increasing cost of consumerism — and consumer confidence that the nation, state or local region is headed in the right direction. All these factors play a significant role in voter turnout and voter confidence.
Now let's talk about other election issues that will likely appear on the November ballot. We have elections for statewide officers from the Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Controller, Insurance Commissioner, etc., as well as US Senate and Congressional races, our local state Assembly races, plus state-wide ballot measures — a state constitutional amendment about abortion. California’s right to an abortion is based on a right to privacy in the state constitution. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade found the right to privacy does not guarantee the right to an abortion, concerning supporters that the state’s abortion laws could be vulnerable in state courts. This amendment, known as Proposition 1, would leave no doubt that abortion is legal in California.
Two ballot initiatives would amend California's constitution to make it legal to bet on sports in California. But they would do it in different ways. Both would require the participation of federally recognized Native American tribes. One initiative, Proposition 26, would let people bet on sports at casinos operated by Native American tribes. It would also allow people to bet on sports at the state's four licensed horse racing tracks in Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties.
Another measure, Proposition 27, would let people use their phones to place bets on sports. A tax would first pay for regulatory costs, while 85% of what's left over would go to homelessness programs, and the remaining 15% would go to nonparticipating Native American tribes. This measure is supported by some sports betting companies.
This initiative, Proposition 28, would require lawmakers to use 1% of all state funding for public schools for music and arts education programs. That would be between $800 million and $1 billion each year, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.
Proposition 31 asks voters whether a 2020 law that outlawed the sale of certain flavored tobacco products in California should take effect or be overturned. When the state Legislature passes a law, voters have the power to stop it from ever taking effect if they can gather enough signatures to put a referendum on the ballot. That’s what tobacco companies did after lawmakers passed a law in 2020 to outlaw certain flavored tobacco products, arguing the products were designed to appeal to children. The law was delayed until voters could decide in November.
Ballot measure Proposition 29 would require a doctor, nurse practitioner or physicians’ assistant to be present during treatment at an outpatient kidney dialysis clinic. This will be the third consecutive general election where voters have been asked this question. The two previous measures failed. This measure is backed again by labor unions that represent health care workers. And again, kidney dialysis companies are opposing it. Some have suggested the subtext of these ballot initiatives reflects a broader battle of labor unions attempting to organize workers at the state’s more than 600 kidney dialysis clinics.
So here we return to local tax initiatives. If I was running any of these campaigns, the first priority is to build a strong and wide coalition of support — including the various sectors of the business community. One just has to look at what happened to the 2022 Measure D and the City Measure F tax measure to see that polls don’t tell the full story. We are four months away from the November election, so a lot can happen between now and election day. I encourage any campaign to do their homework and really understand the voter’s attitude and don’t forget the role that the business community plays in our economic vitality — as a large percentage of any tax measure revenue comes from businesses and their consumers. We will write more on the November election cycle in the months and days ahead.