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Heading to the Lowest Voter Turnout on Record Tuesday, June 7 was Election Day in California. In pre-election day polling results and surveys across the state, county election officers and the Secretary of State were reporting very low ballot returns in the low teens (10 to13%). This was the case even in areas in the state with some of the most hotly contested state assembly and state senate races, an LA Mayor’s race that is drawing national attention as one leading candidate is spending $37-plus million of his own money to win the coveted Mayor’s office. The late-night election returns in Santa Cruz County show a similar low voter turnout with approximately 25% of the votes counted at 18% voter turnout as of 2:45 am on Wednesday — more on the local vote tally later in this article. The drag on this primary election day is shadowed by a general lack of voter interest since the “top of the ticket” races for Governor, Lt. Governor, US Senate and other statewide offices are considered non-competitive. The incumbents are running against unknowns in all but a couple of races where the incumbent will move on to the November General Election Day, most likely facing a fellow Democratic opponent. Comparing the June 2022 primary low turnout to last year's Governor recall election where more than 60% of voters turned out dims the sense of urgency, even when there are more than 30 open state legislative seats in play for the first time in a decade as well as a few competitive Congressional races spurred on by the redistricting shakeup. Add to this the impact of California’s progressive election reforms, which have pushed registration to a record 22 million voters, and implemented a permanent system of mailing ballots to all voters and even removed the requirement that they pay postage when returning them. The state has 1,000 drop-off boxes to place your ballot or even hand your ballot to a volunteer or neighbor who can collect and turn it in for the disengaged voter. Plus voters can still head to the polls on Election Day. What does this say about voter apathy? First, it means that the electorate casting ballots isn’t representative of the state population as a whole. And for campaigns, it means that they better be more focused on their targeting, lest they spend all their money on people who aren’t voting. And, given the volatility of low-turnout elections and campaigns, those of us observing these races should be braced for some surprises. Here are some interesting statewide voting data that should open the eyes of candidates’ eyes and the campaign strategists who like to target voters for their cause. Those following the early voter tracking process have seen how a low-turnout election impacts the composition of voters who will be deciding these elections. Age and ethnicity of the voters who have returned their ballots so far is striking. Seniors are only 13% of the state’s population, but 25% of those registered, and 51% of those who have returned their ballots early before Election Day. Effectively, we have given one-seventh of the population, and one-quarter of the registered voters, the majority voting power among votes cast. Early voting shows a significant sign of tilting the playing field. At the other end of the spectrum, those aged 18-34 are 27% of voters but are only 10% of the ballots returned before Tuesday’s Election Day. This means that while there are more Gen Z and Millennials on the voter rolls than seniors, for everyone under 35 years old who has voted, there are five seniors who have countered. In terms of turnout to date, seniors are already at 29% turnout while younger voters are at just 5%. Let’s take a look at the early returns in Santa Cruz County where we have some interesting races for open assembly seats, county supervisor seats, the gorilla issue of the year, Measure D, and a handful of other local ballot measures designed to pull out more voters. Registered Voters in Competitive Races for the June 7 Election Santa Cruz County registration = 167,045 registered voters 28th Assembly District = 80,204 29th Assembly District = 33,716 30th Assembly District = 53,123 3rd District County Board of Supervisors = 31,718 4th District County Board of Supervisors = 23,331 City of Santa Cruz = 36,561 These preliminary tallies indicate certain voting trends but in no way reflect the final results which won’t officially be known until the County Election Officer certifies the results and sends them to the Secretary of State thirty days after June 7. If we consider or predict the final voter turnout in Santa Cruz County will be near 30% (it is currently at 18%) the election results can be very narrowly decided or overwhelmingly slanted to one side. Ironically, as of this Wednesday morning writing only two media outlets have covered our local midnight elections coverage — Lookout Santa Cruz and Santa Cruz Local — two digital media operations. Here is Lookout’s coverage: Lookout Santa Cruz Election Night Coverage. And here is Santa Cruz Local’s coverage: SantaCruzLocal Election Coverage. Being the policy and political nerd that I am here is my prediction for voter turnout: Santa Cruz County 167,045 registered voters x. .30 = 50,113 28th Assembly District = 80,204 x .30 = 24,061 29th Assembly District = 33,716 x .30 = 10,114 30th Assembly District = 53,123 x .30 = 15,936 3rd District County Board of Supervisors = 31,718 x .30 = 9,515 4th District County Board of Supervisors = 23,331 x .30= 6,999 City of Santa Cruz = 36,561 x. 30 = 10,968 In the 28th Assembly District (AD) race, local hometown candidate Gail Pellerin has the lead with 34.2% of the vote. Her closest opponent is Liz Lawlor, councilmember from Monte Sereno with 30.6%, and Rob Renne at 25.4%. Pellerin’s lead was generated by the big numbers that came out of Santa Cruz County — 48.4% of the Santa Cruz County vote went to Pellerin, 18.6% to Lawler, and 15.9% to Rennie. In Santa Clara County, the three leaders are within 2,570 votes, with Lawler leading at 34.2% with 13,399 votes, Rennie polling at 28.2% with 11,021 votes, and Pellerin at 27.7% and 10,829. With redistricting shifting the balance of the district to Santa Clara County, it will be anybody’s guess where those votes will tally. Predictably, the 28th AD voter registration is significantly Democratic. The question is whether the leading Democratic candidates will split the vote giving an advantage to the only Republican (Lawler) in the race. In the 30th Assembly District (AD) race, Morro Bay Councilmember, Dawn Addis holds a strong lead with 43.4%. The partial vote counts from the Secretary of State (AD 30 is a new district encompassing three counties from Live Oak in Santa Cruz County hugging the central coast in Monterey County down to San Luis Obispo County). Addis' vote tally is 27,079 followed by Vicki Nohrden with 20,818 and Jon Wizard at 6,537. The two other 30th AD candidates are Zoe Carter at 8.5% and John Drake at 4%. It appears the odds are in favor of Addis maintaining the lead over Nohrden’s ability to hold on to the second place for a November run-off. The local County Board of Supervisor race in District 3 is leaning toward a November run-off with Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson receiving 41.3% (2,333) out of the 5,652 votes counted and Justin Cummings 33.6% (1,900 votes). If my prediction of 30% voter turnout (9,515) is correct, the remaining votes (3,863) and if the vote percentages for each candidate remain the same — neither candidate will win a majority 50%+1 vote. The 4th District Board of Supervisor race is too close to call but at 2:30 am on Wednesday the vote tally shows Jimmy Dutra with 1,152 votes (46.7%) and Felipe Hernandez with 860 votes (34.9%). Again using my voter turnout prediction of 30% (6,999) there are 4,532 votes uncounted. If Dutra’s possible vote tally remains at 46%, his final tally would be 3,236 and Hernandez would be 34% or 2,400 votes which are below the 50% + 1 vote to avoid a run-off. Now, let's look at the early vote returns for the Measure D ballot measure. The Yes on Measure D tallied 8,580 votes (28%) against the No on D with 21,021 votes (69%). No one that I have talked to on both sides of this measure would have predicted such a large vote difference. The vote tally on Measure D was 30,338 as of early Wednesday morning. By using my 30% voter turnout prediction (approximately 50,133 votes will be counted) which leaves 19,775 votes countywide. Holding to the current voting trends the predicted final tally for the No on D campaign at 69% would result in a total of 34,665 votes. The predicted vote count for Yes on Measure D would be 14,117. Statistically speaking, it is unlikely that the Yes on D vote can overcome such a large deficit. While this is a prediction using the current voting trends, we don’t know whether the 30% voter turnout will hold nor do we know where the uncounted votes will come from within the county. We can do a deeper dive once the final vote tally is certified, but the early vote counts tell a compelling story that the voters of Santa Cruz County want a rail and trail option
Heading to the Lowest Voter Turnout on Record
Tuesday, June 7 was Election Day in California. In pre-election day polling results and surveys across the state, county election officers and the Secretary of State were reporting very low ballot returns in the low teens (10 to13%). This was the case even in areas in the state with some of the most hotly contested state assembly and state senate races, an LA Mayor’s race that is drawing national attention as one leading candidate is spending $37-plus million of his own money to win the coveted Mayor’s office.
The late-night election returns in Santa Cruz County show a similar low voter turnout with approximately 25% of the votes counted at 18% voter turnout as of 2:45 am on Wednesday — more on the local vote tally later in this article.
The drag on this primary election day is shadowed by a general lack of voter interest since the “top of the ticket” races for Governor, Lt. Governor, US Senate and other statewide offices are considered non-competitive. The incumbents are running against unknowns in all but a couple of races where the incumbent will move on to the November General Election Day, most likely facing a fellow Democratic opponent.
Comparing the June 2022 primary low turnout to last year's Governor recall election where more than 60% of voters turned out dims the sense of urgency, even when there are more than 30 open state legislative seats in play for the first time in a decade as well as a few competitive Congressional races spurred on by the redistricting shakeup. Add to this the impact of California’s progressive election reforms, which have pushed registration to a record 22 million voters, and implemented a permanent system of mailing ballots to all voters and even removed the requirement that they pay postage when returning them. The state has 1,000 drop-off boxes to place your ballot or even hand your ballot to a volunteer or neighbor who can collect and turn it in for the disengaged voter. Plus voters can still head to the polls on Election Day.
What does this say about voter apathy? First, it means that the electorate casting ballots isn’t representative of the state population as a whole. And for campaigns, it means that they better be more focused on their targeting, lest they spend all their money on people who aren’t voting. And, given the volatility of low-turnout elections and campaigns, those of us observing these races should be braced for some surprises.
Here are some interesting statewide voting data that should open the eyes of candidates’ eyes and the campaign strategists who like to target voters for their cause. Those following the early voter tracking process have seen how a low-turnout election impacts the composition of voters who will be deciding these elections. Age and ethnicity of the voters who have returned their ballots so far is striking. Seniors are only 13% of the state’s population, but 25% of those registered, and 51% of those who have returned their ballots early before Election Day. Effectively, we have given one-seventh of the population, and one-quarter of the registered voters, the majority voting power among votes cast.
Early voting shows a significant sign of tilting the playing field. At the other end of the spectrum, those aged 18-34 are 27% of voters but are only 10% of the ballots returned before Tuesday’s Election Day. This means that while there are more Gen Z and Millennials on the voter rolls than seniors, for everyone under 35 years old who has voted, there are five seniors who have countered. In terms of turnout to date, seniors are already at 29% turnout while younger voters are at just 5%.
Let’s take a look at the early returns in Santa Cruz County where we have some interesting races for open assembly seats, county supervisor seats, the gorilla issue of the year, Measure D, and a handful of other local ballot measures designed to pull out more voters.
Registered Voters in Competitive Races for the June 7 Election
These preliminary tallies indicate certain voting trends but in no way reflect the final results which won’t officially be known until the County Election Officer certifies the results and sends them to the Secretary of State thirty days after June 7.
If we consider or predict the final voter turnout in Santa Cruz County will be near 30% (it is currently at 18%) the election results can be very narrowly decided or overwhelmingly slanted to one side. Ironically, as of this Wednesday morning writing only two media outlets have covered our local midnight elections coverage — Lookout Santa Cruz and Santa Cruz Local — two digital media operations. Here is Lookout’s coverage: Lookout Santa Cruz Election Night Coverage. And here is Santa Cruz Local’s coverage: SantaCruzLocal Election Coverage.
Being the policy and political nerd that I am here is my prediction for voter turnout:
In the 28th Assembly District (AD) race, local hometown candidate Gail Pellerin has the lead with 34.2% of the vote. Her closest opponent is Liz Lawlor, councilmember from Monte Sereno with 30.6%, and Rob Renne at 25.4%. Pellerin’s lead was generated by the big numbers that came out of Santa Cruz County — 48.4% of the Santa Cruz County vote went to Pellerin, 18.6% to Lawler, and 15.9% to Rennie. In Santa Clara County, the three leaders are within 2,570 votes, with Lawler leading at 34.2% with 13,399 votes, Rennie polling at 28.2% with 11,021 votes, and Pellerin at 27.7% and 10,829.
With redistricting shifting the balance of the district to Santa Clara County, it will be anybody’s guess where those votes will tally. Predictably, the 28th AD voter registration is significantly Democratic. The question is whether the leading Democratic candidates will split the vote giving an advantage to the only Republican (Lawler) in the race.
In the 30th Assembly District (AD) race, Morro Bay Councilmember, Dawn Addis holds a strong lead with 43.4%. The partial vote counts from the Secretary of State (AD 30 is a new district encompassing three counties from Live Oak in Santa Cruz County hugging the central coast in Monterey County down to San Luis Obispo County). Addis' vote tally is 27,079 followed by Vicki Nohrden with 20,818 and Jon Wizard at 6,537. The two other 30th AD candidates are Zoe Carter at 8.5% and John Drake at 4%. It appears the odds are in favor of Addis maintaining the lead over Nohrden’s ability to hold on to the second place for a November run-off.
The local County Board of Supervisor race in District 3 is leaning toward a November run-off with Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson receiving 41.3% (2,333) out of the 5,652 votes counted and Justin Cummings 33.6% (1,900 votes). If my prediction of 30% voter turnout (9,515) is correct, the remaining votes (3,863) and if the vote percentages for each candidate remain the same — neither candidate will win a majority 50%+1 vote.
The 4th District Board of Supervisor race is too close to call but at 2:30 am on Wednesday the vote tally shows Jimmy Dutra with 1,152 votes (46.7%) and Felipe Hernandez with 860 votes (34.9%). Again using my voter turnout prediction of 30% (6,999) there are 4,532 votes uncounted. If Dutra’s possible vote tally remains at 46%, his final tally would be 3,236 and Hernandez would be 34% or 2,400 votes which are below the 50% + 1 vote to avoid a run-off.
Now, let's look at the early vote returns for the Measure D ballot measure. The Yes on Measure D tallied 8,580 votes (28%) against the No on D with 21,021 votes (69%). No one that I have talked to on both sides of this measure would have predicted such a large vote difference. The vote tally on Measure D was 30,338 as of early Wednesday morning. By using my 30% voter turnout prediction (approximately 50,133 votes will be counted) which leaves 19,775 votes countywide. Holding to the current voting trends the predicted final tally for the No on D campaign at 69% would result in a total of 34,665 votes. The predicted vote count for Yes on Measure D would be 14,117. Statistically speaking, it is unlikely that the Yes on D vote can overcome such a large deficit. While this is a prediction using the current voting trends, we don’t know whether the 30% voter turnout will hold nor do we know where the uncounted votes will come from within the county. We can do a deeper dive once the final vote tally is certified, but the early vote counts tell a compelling story that the voters of Santa Cruz County want a rail and trail option