ARTICLE
Here we go again. 2020 was the first time since population data collection began in 1900 that California saw an overall population decline. Well, according to the California Department of Finance which released a report this week California’s population shrank slightly for the second year in a row last year, with the state losing 117,552 residents — Santa Cruz County and our three cities, excluding the City of Santa Cruz, had population declines. Napa, San Mateo, Marin and San Francisco counties were all among the top 10 counties with the largest percentage decreases in their populations, according to a new report from the state. Each of those counties lost nearly 1% of their population, though 34 of the state’s 58 counties lost net population. The state Department of Finance released new annual population estimates Monday that show California’s overall population decreased by 0.3% in 2021, only the second year since data collection began in 1900 that the state saw an over decline. “It’s unprecedented. We were always historically the state that grew a lot,” Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, said of two years of population decline. “I think we’re going to be settling into a new reality of slow population growth, or negative population loss.” The Finance Department said the population dip reflects a host of factors: a slowdown in the birth rate while deaths increase as Baby Boomers age, a surge in deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase in out-migration to other states and a drop in foreign immigration due to federal delays processing migrants. California’s population has now dropped to 39,185,605, down from a peak of 39,538,223 in early 2020, according to the U.S. Census. The state’s population grew by about 0.2%, or 87,494 people, in 2019. Population growth remained strongest in the inland counties of the Central Valley, where the construction of single-family homes has lured new residents. Yolo and San Benito counties grew by more than 1%. Meanwhile, nearly every county on the coast saw declines, except counties along the Central Coast. Here is the population tracking for Santa Cruz County. As you can see our population (year over year) remains flat, according to the report, the City of Santa Cruz population increased 11.3% or 6,481 people. However, the population decrease was apparent throughout the other three cities and the county. Capitola (-3.1%), Scotts Valley (-2.9%), Watsonville (-2.8 %) the balance of the county (-3.2%) The state’s growth has been slowing for decades as the birth rate declines and fewer people are migrating to California from both other states and other countries. McGhee said several of the trends driving down California’s population numbers, such as declining birth rates and an aging population, are playing out in the rest of the country, as well. He said, however, that the level of out-migration to other states coupled with a steep drop in international immigration is driving the state’s decline. Historically speaking, California has often lost more residents to domestic out-migration than it’s gained over the last three decades, largely due to the cost of housing. That population shift was typically offset by foreign immigration, but the amount of immigrants coming has dropped due to the pandemic and federal policies: California had a net gain of 43,300 immigrants last year, compared with an average of 140,000 before COVID hit. While the overall population loss has been slight as a percentage, the issue presents an existential challenge for California. State leaders are already battling perceptions that a lack of housing, the soaring cost of living, crime rates, catastrophic wildfires and other crises are causing a Golden State exodus. Last year, the state lost a representative in Congress for the first time in the state’s history, because its population grew more slowly than the rest of the country as a whole in the last Census. There are a set of questions moving forward for demographers and government leaders that need to be answered. Will the trend continue in the coming years? Will housing projects make a difference for California and specifically for Santa Cruz County’s population growth or decline? Will the cost of living in Santa Cruz County continue to outpace other parts of the country? Santa Cruz County’s demographics have shown a consistent distinction of an aging population and the slowing growth rates of young families in the region. It is too soon to hit the panic button as a declining population always has a direct correlation to job growth, economic vitality and a population that provides the tax base for social and related government services. As a coastal community, we should start to address ways that ensure our economic future.
Here we go again. 2020 was the first time since population data collection began in 1900 that California saw an overall population decline. Well, according to the California Department of Finance which released a report this week California’s population shrank slightly for the second year in a row last year, with the state losing 117,552 residents — Santa Cruz County and our three cities, excluding the City of Santa Cruz, had population declines.
Napa, San Mateo, Marin and San Francisco counties were all among the top 10 counties with the largest percentage decreases in their populations, according to a new report from the state. Each of those counties lost nearly 1% of their population, though 34 of the state’s 58 counties lost net population.
The state Department of Finance released new annual population estimates Monday that show California’s overall population decreased by 0.3% in 2021, only the second year since data collection began in 1900 that the state saw an over decline.
“It’s unprecedented. We were always historically the state that grew a lot,” Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, said of two years of population decline. “I think we’re going to be settling into a new reality of slow population growth, or negative population loss.”
The Finance Department said the population dip reflects a host of factors: a slowdown in the birth rate while deaths increase as Baby Boomers age, a surge in deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase in out-migration to other states and a drop in foreign immigration due to federal delays processing migrants.
California’s population has now dropped to 39,185,605, down from a peak of 39,538,223 in early 2020, according to the U.S. Census. The state’s population grew by about 0.2%, or 87,494 people, in 2019.
Population growth remained strongest in the inland counties of the Central Valley, where the construction of single-family homes has lured new residents. Yolo and San Benito counties grew by more than 1%. Meanwhile, nearly every county on the coast saw declines, except counties along the Central Coast. Here is the population tracking for Santa Cruz County.
As you can see our population (year over year) remains flat, according to the report, the City of Santa Cruz population increased 11.3% or 6,481 people. However, the population decrease was apparent throughout the other three cities and the county. Capitola (-3.1%), Scotts Valley (-2.9%), Watsonville (-2.8 %) the balance of the county (-3.2%)
The state’s growth has been slowing for decades as the birth rate declines and fewer people are migrating to California from both other states and other countries.
McGhee said several of the trends driving down California’s population numbers, such as declining birth rates and an aging population, are playing out in the rest of the country, as well. He said, however, that the level of out-migration to other states coupled with a steep drop in international immigration is driving the state’s decline.
Historically speaking, California has often lost more residents to domestic out-migration than it’s gained over the last three decades, largely due to the cost of housing. That population shift was typically offset by foreign immigration, but the amount of immigrants coming has dropped due to the pandemic and federal policies: California had a net gain of 43,300 immigrants last year, compared with an average of 140,000 before COVID hit.
While the overall population loss has been slight as a percentage, the issue presents an existential challenge for California. State leaders are already battling perceptions that a lack of housing, the soaring cost of living, crime rates, catastrophic wildfires and other crises are causing a Golden State exodus.
Last year, the state lost a representative in Congress for the first time in the state’s history, because its population grew more slowly than the rest of the country as a whole in the last Census. There are a set of questions moving forward for demographers and government leaders that need to be answered. Will the trend continue in the coming years? Will housing projects make a difference for California and specifically for Santa Cruz County’s population growth or decline? Will the cost of living in Santa Cruz County continue to outpace other parts of the country? Santa Cruz County’s demographics have shown a consistent distinction of an aging population and the slowing growth rates of young families in the region. It is too soon to hit the panic button as a declining population always has a direct correlation to job growth, economic vitality and a population that provides the tax base for social and related government services. As a coastal community, we should start to address ways that ensure our economic future.