ARTICLE
We are closing in on the end of Q3 for 2021. It has been a long slog through the winter, spring and summer months. September is usually the fairest weather on the Central Coast. Tourist season is behind us. The roads and highways are not as congested, and locals are looking to find the new normal work-home life balance with kids in school and the focus on fall activities. Well, stop the presses. None of these “new normal” are happening. There is a large supply of tourist and locals who want that one last fling of summer; the fall events like the late summer concerts, the Santa Cruz County Fair, the annual Capitola Arts and Wine Festival (and upcoming Beach Festival this weekend) are events that drive our local economy. We won’t have hard economic data for a few weeks; however, it appears from the whispers around town, that the pent-up energy is being displayed on the Central Coast. What about the local and state economy and the ever-present national employment numbers? Take a look at this graphic data from the California Forecasting Report. According to the report, the impact on the California economy was more significant than the rest of the nation but the recovery will progress at a faster pace, catching up to the rest of the U.S. by 2023. However, tourism-based economies will take longer to recover, so the coastal communities are certainly lagging, despite the flurry of tourism throughout the central coast this summer. What is the namesake of this past year that we can provide to identify our current situation? The number of workers who quit their jobs reached an all-time high this past spring. Why? As workers now face the possibility that their employer cannot provide all of their new demands in a post-Covid world, they are seeking alternative jobs where management offers more flexibility. Consequently, employers now face more employee turnover and will have to make more concessions to maintain key workers. Unfilled positions are the new norm in and around the state and in our tourist-driven communities. Hence there is a dearth of workers we are now seeing in the restaurant and retail sectors. Where will they come from to fill local jobs in the hotels, restaurants and retail outlets? But is the Great Resignation coined by the California Forecast Report part of a structural change that will endure regardless of where we are in the business cycle? We know specifically in Santa Cruz County that our businesses are struggling to find employees. At the Chamber’s Biz Expo that took place on Sept. 8th (an annual event that highlights our members’ activities), dozens of our member exhibitors were looking to hire. On Friday, Sept. 24, in downtown Santa Cruz, the Downtown Association in partnership with UCSC and many downtown businesses is holding a WalkAbout Job Fair to hopefully get UCSC and Cabrillo College students to think about a part-time job to supplement their income. There are two other job fairs on the calendars for the hospitality and restaurant industry (October 5) and a broader all-county Job Fair (October 13). More details are in the works. One thing is certain, our working hours are shifting from a remote to hybrid process where possible, but many of the jobs in the tourist, retail-based and agriculture economy require to be ‘on the job front’ at hotel reservation desk, in the fields, at restaurants and retail shops, service organizations and most importantly those jobs at hospitals, emergency workers and public sector positions that cannot be done in a remote environment. Let’s take a look at the EDD employment numbers for August 2021. https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/scrz$pds.pdf The unemployment rate in the Santa Cruz County was 6.3 percent in August 2021, down from a revised 6.6 percent in July 2021, and below the year-ago estimate of 9.2 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.5 percent for California and 5.3 percent for the nation during the same period. From July 2021 to August 2021 we have overall 700 new jobs in all industries. A deeper dive shows a loss of jobs in the Farm(-100), Mining, Logging and construction (-100), Manufacturing (-100) and other services (-200). The recovery of jobs on a month-to-month basis shows a modest positive increase. When comparing August 2020 to August 2021 we have seen a marginal increase of 3,200 jobs reflected in over all industries sectors. Where we are heading and how will the last quarter of 2021 end? Traditionally, the last quarter of our local economy slows because our tourist season goes quite in the late fall. Our agricultural sector slows as well. The questions with unknown answers: Will Santa Cruz County see a rival on holiday activities? Will local shoppers shop local? Will the finance, health care, tech and the public sectors see substantial job growth and activity in the last quarter? These trends will be important to understand how and where the Santa Cruz County economy moves into 2022. From a pragmatic viewpoint, the Santa Cruz County Chamber will continue to promote our local economic activity for our members, host events and meetings using COVID-19 protocols and gear up for a positive end-of-the year strategy. As always, we value your input, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to your Chamber with your comments, questions or suggestions. Onward we go.
We are closing in on the end of Q3 for 2021. It has been a long slog through the winter, spring and summer months. September is usually the fairest weather on the Central Coast. Tourist season is behind us. The roads and highways are not as congested, and locals are looking to find the new normal work-home life balance with kids in school and the focus on fall activities. Well, stop the presses. None of these “new normal” are happening. There is a large supply of tourist and locals who want that one last fling of summer; the fall events like the late summer concerts, the Santa Cruz County Fair, the annual Capitola Arts and Wine Festival (and upcoming Beach Festival this weekend) are events that drive our local economy. We won’t have hard economic data for a few weeks; however, it appears from the whispers around town, that the pent-up energy is being displayed on the Central Coast.
What about the local and state economy and the ever-present national employment numbers? Take a look at this graphic data from the California Forecasting Report. According to the report, the impact on the California economy was more significant than the rest of the nation but the recovery will progress at a faster pace, catching up to the rest of the U.S. by 2023. However, tourism-based economies will take longer to recover, so the coastal communities are certainly lagging, despite the flurry of tourism throughout the central coast this summer.
What is the namesake of this past year that we can provide to identify our current situation? The number of workers who quit their jobs reached an all-time high this past spring. Why? As workers now face the possibility that their employer cannot provide all of their new demands in a post-Covid world, they are seeking alternative jobs where management offers more flexibility.
Consequently, employers now face more employee turnover and will have to make more concessions to maintain key workers. Unfilled positions are the new norm in and around the state and in our tourist-driven communities. Hence there is a dearth of workers we are now seeing in the restaurant and retail sectors. Where will they come from to fill local jobs in the hotels, restaurants and retail outlets? But is the Great Resignation coined by the California Forecast Report part of a structural change that will endure regardless of where we are in the business cycle?
We know specifically in Santa Cruz County that our businesses are struggling to find employees. At the Chamber’s Biz Expo that took place on Sept. 8th (an annual event that highlights our members’ activities), dozens of our member exhibitors were looking to hire. On Friday, Sept. 24, in downtown Santa Cruz, the Downtown Association in partnership with UCSC and many downtown businesses is holding a WalkAbout Job Fair to hopefully get UCSC and Cabrillo College students to think about a part-time job to supplement their income. There are two other job fairs on the calendars for the hospitality and restaurant industry (October 5) and a broader all-county Job Fair (October 13). More details are in the works.
One thing is certain, our working hours are shifting from a remote to hybrid process where possible, but many of the jobs in the tourist, retail-based and agriculture economy require to be ‘on the job front’ at hotel reservation desk, in the fields, at restaurants and retail shops, service organizations and most importantly those jobs at hospitals, emergency workers and public sector positions that cannot be done in a remote environment. Let’s take a look at the EDD employment numbers for August 2021.
https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/scrz$pds.pdf
The unemployment rate in the Santa Cruz County was 6.3 percent in August 2021, down from a revised 6.6 percent in July 2021, and below the year-ago estimate of 9.2 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.5 percent for California and 5.3 percent for the nation during the same period.
From July 2021 to August 2021 we have overall 700 new jobs in all industries. A deeper dive shows a loss of jobs in the Farm(-100), Mining, Logging and construction (-100), Manufacturing (-100) and other services (-200). The recovery of jobs on a month-to-month basis shows a modest positive increase. When comparing August 2020 to August 2021 we have seen a marginal increase of 3,200 jobs reflected in over all industries sectors.
Where we are heading and how will the last quarter of 2021 end? Traditionally, the last quarter of our local economy slows because our tourist season goes quite in the late fall. Our agricultural sector slows as well. The questions with unknown answers: Will Santa Cruz County see a rival on holiday activities? Will local shoppers shop local? Will the finance, health care, tech and the public sectors see substantial job growth and activity in the last quarter? These trends will be important to understand how and where the Santa Cruz County economy moves into 2022.
From a pragmatic viewpoint, the Santa Cruz County Chamber will continue to promote our local economic activity for our members, host events and meetings using COVID-19 protocols and gear up for a positive end-of-the year strategy. As always, we value your input, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to your Chamber with your comments, questions or suggestions. Onward we go.