ARTICLE
The recent increase in virus cases has us swirling in a choppy sea of global, national, state, and local news reports. My hope as we move into the Christmas holiday season was a time for good cheer and a little light-hearted engagement of the community. Usually, as we approach the end of the year it is time that we celebrate the beginning of December with the annual Santa Cruz County Bank holiday party. That won’t happen in December 2020. Take a look at these sobering headlines in newsprint and digital stories from around the state. > California’s COVID-19 surge: ‘It’s brutal. It’s astoundingly bad’ and about to get worse — LA Times > Coronavirus updates: California nursing homes, prisons still hot spots in broad surge - Sacramento Bee > As virus again surges in California, race is a defining factor in nursing facilities, research shows— LA News > California considers strict stay-at-home orders as COVID-19 cases projected to exceed ICU capacity - Associated Press > COVID-19 is crushing San Diego County hospitals - San Diego Union Tribune > Santa Cruz County jail staff hit with COVID-19 outbreak — Santa Cruz Sentinel We are deeply in the purple tier. It is pretty difficult to paint a rosy picture of our holiday season. Yet, that is what we must do to be resilient. As of Monday afternoon, Santa Cruz County had confirmed 4,529 positive COVID-19 tests since March, compared to 74,564 negative test results. Some 1,089 positive cases remained active this week, while 3,412 people had recovered from the illness. As of the latest county COVID-19 dashboard data, there had been 28 deaths related to the coronavirus. On Tuesday afternoon, the county reported another death raising the total to 29. Here is the latest update from Santa Cruz County Public Health Officer, Dr. Gail Newel’s slide presentation to the County’s Economic Recovery Council: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11aVDUR3_Kqvn2-BDCXawzoGwJarHgtTI/view Let’s take a look at the economic impact from two economic reports: The California Economic Forecast monthly report hit my inbox on Tuesday morning with this opening salvo: The anticipated second wave represents a potentially large threat to the economy, and state governments are choosing to restrict business operations. And many have to date. The seven-day moving average of daily new cases now exceeds 160,000, more than double the peak reached in July. The economic recovery is bound by the prevalence of the virus, and the recent trend is setting the stage for a brutal ending to a terribly difficult year. The California Forecast and general outlook for how the economy evolves in 2021 did not assume further restrictive measures on economic activity. The degree of “openness” within state economies back in September was assumed to be maintained into the winter months. California was assumed to retain its status which, relative to other states, has been quite restrictive since July. Now however, a 10 PM curfew has been added to the myriad of other restrictions businesses face. And if you are a local Bay Area sports fan, Santa Clara County has banned all sporting events. The 49ers will play ‘home games’ in Arizona. GDP is expected to rise 2 to 3 percent in the 4th quarter following the 33.1 percent jump in the 3rd quarter. However, recent shutdowns could dash that forecast. GDP growth could turn negative in the first quarter of 2021 and there is rising concern that a second recession is possible. According to the Blueprint for a Safer Economy https://covid19.ca.gov/ that defines how businesses in California Counties can open, county-level economies are automatically reversing as case counts rise in the 2nd wave. Currently, more than 94 percent of California’s population is now living in counties that are in the state’s most restrictive reopening tier (purple), which mandates significant closures of businesses. You can see the Dec. 1 report here: https://californiaforecast.com/december-2020/ However, Beacon Economics has a differing view on the economy: California’s labor market recovery regained some momentum in October, with the level of employment growing at its fastest pace since June, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by 145,500 positions over the month. “The expansion of the state’s labor force is one of the brightest spots we have seen in the labor market for many months,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “Unfortunately, it comes just as Covid-19 cases are again surging in California and restrictions on activity have been put in place. Beyond the public health effects, the new surge is terrible timing for the 1.5 million workers who have been out of a job since February.” Despite the solid performance, only 44% of the jobs lost in California during the pandemic have been recovered, with 1.5 million fewer workers employed compared to February 2020. The new statewide restrictions on business activity and consumer behavior that were announced this week, will act as a speed bump to the momentum gained this month, according to the analysis. The report for full analysis is here: https://beaconecon.com/publications/beacon-employment-report/ So where does that place Santa Cruz County as we head into the last month of 2020? It is difficult to predict how the local holiday shopping will fair but early indications (nationwide) that more people are shopping online than ever before. According to a recent survey by Deloitte LLP: Getting a good deal is still the most important thing for shoppers over the Thanksgiving weekend, with COVID-19 safety precautions as the second priority, according to a survey of 1,200 U.S. consumers Oct. 29-Nov. 2 conducted by Deloitte LLP. 47% of consumers said offering better deals/low prices are what retailers can do to make the Thanksgiving shopping period better, while 23% said COVID-19 safety precautions including crowd control. On Black Friday specifically, 35% said better deals and 30% said COVID-19 safety precautions. 61% of adults say they do “feel safe” going to the store, up from 30% in April, according to the Deloitte survey. Shopping in stores provides the highest feeling of safety among the other choices given, such as staying in a hotel (45% said they feel safe), going to a restaurant (43%) taking a flight (33%) and returning to my workplace. (29%). For many of us in Santa Cruz County, the local holiday season just started. Now, more than ever, we need to jump start our shopping to ensure our small local businesses survive. I am happy to report that the collaborative effort led by Visit Santa Cruz County, all county-wide chambers and business associations have worked together to push a marketing opportunity for you to buy locally. This is the time to shop on-line, buy your holiday gifts through gift certificates using the following link. https://www.rideoutthewave.org/ Tomorrow is another day closer to the end of 2020 and a day closer when the first round of the vaccine will be approved and available soon. Until then, Stay Safe, Be Calm and Buy Local
The recent increase in virus cases has us swirling in a choppy sea of global, national, state, and local news reports. My hope as we move into the Christmas holiday season was a time for good cheer and a little light-hearted engagement of the community. Usually, as we approach the end of the year it is time that we celebrate the beginning of December with the annual Santa Cruz County Bank holiday party. That won’t happen in December 2020.
Take a look at these sobering headlines in newsprint and digital stories from around the state. > California’s COVID-19 surge: ‘It’s brutal. It’s astoundingly bad’ and about to get worse — LA Times > Coronavirus updates: California nursing homes, prisons still hot spots in broad surge - Sacramento Bee > As virus again surges in California, race is a defining factor in nursing facilities, research shows— LA News > California considers strict stay-at-home orders as COVID-19 cases projected to exceed ICU capacity - Associated Press > COVID-19 is crushing San Diego County hospitals - San Diego Union Tribune > Santa Cruz County jail staff hit with COVID-19 outbreak — Santa Cruz Sentinel
We are deeply in the purple tier. It is pretty difficult to paint a rosy picture of our holiday season. Yet, that is what we must do to be resilient.
As of Monday afternoon, Santa Cruz County had confirmed 4,529 positive COVID-19 tests since March, compared to 74,564 negative test results. Some 1,089 positive cases remained active this week, while 3,412 people had recovered from the illness. As of the latest county COVID-19 dashboard data, there had been 28 deaths related to the coronavirus. On Tuesday afternoon, the county reported another death raising the total to 29.
Here is the latest update from Santa Cruz County Public Health Officer, Dr. Gail Newel’s slide presentation to the County’s Economic Recovery Council: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11aVDUR3_Kqvn2-BDCXawzoGwJarHgtTI/view
Let’s take a look at the economic impact from two economic reports: The California Economic Forecast monthly report hit my inbox on Tuesday morning with this opening salvo: The anticipated second wave represents a potentially large threat to the economy, and state governments are choosing to restrict business operations. And many have to date.
The seven-day moving average of daily new cases now exceeds 160,000, more than double the peak reached in July. The economic recovery is bound by the prevalence of the virus, and the recent trend is setting the stage for a brutal ending to a terribly difficult year.
The California Forecast and general outlook for how the economy evolves in 2021 did not assume further restrictive measures on economic activity. The degree of “openness” within state economies back in September was assumed to be maintained into the winter months. California was assumed to retain its status which, relative to other states, has been quite restrictive since July. Now however, a 10 PM curfew has been added to the myriad of other restrictions businesses face. And if you are a local Bay Area sports fan, Santa Clara County has banned all sporting events. The 49ers will play ‘home games’ in Arizona.
GDP is expected to rise 2 to 3 percent in the 4th quarter following the 33.1 percent jump in the 3rd quarter. However, recent shutdowns could dash that forecast. GDP growth could turn negative in the first quarter of 2021 and there is rising concern that a second recession is possible.
According to the Blueprint for a Safer Economy https://covid19.ca.gov/ that defines how businesses in California Counties can open, county-level economies are automatically reversing as case counts rise in the 2nd wave. Currently, more than 94 percent of California’s population is now living in counties that are in the state’s most restrictive reopening tier (purple), which mandates significant closures of businesses. You can see the Dec. 1 report here: https://californiaforecast.com/december-2020/
However, Beacon Economics has a differing view on the economy:
California’s labor market recovery regained some momentum in October, with the level of employment growing at its fastest pace since June, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by 145,500 positions over the month.
“The expansion of the state’s labor force is one of the brightest spots we have seen in the labor market for many months,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “Unfortunately, it comes just as Covid-19 cases are again surging in California and restrictions on activity have been put in place. Beyond the public health effects, the new surge is terrible timing for the 1.5 million workers who have been out of a job since February.”
Despite the solid performance, only 44% of the jobs lost in California during the pandemic have been recovered, with 1.5 million fewer workers employed compared to February 2020. The new statewide restrictions on business activity and consumer behavior that were announced this week, will act as a speed bump to the momentum gained this month, according to the analysis. The report for full analysis is here: https://beaconecon.com/publications/beacon-employment-report/
So where does that place Santa Cruz County as we head into the last month of 2020? It is difficult to predict how the local holiday shopping will fair but early indications (nationwide) that more people are shopping online than ever before.
According to a recent survey by Deloitte LLP: Getting a good deal is still the most important thing for shoppers over the Thanksgiving weekend, with COVID-19 safety precautions as the second priority, according to a survey of 1,200 U.S. consumers Oct. 29-Nov. 2 conducted by Deloitte LLP.
47% of consumers said offering better deals/low prices are what retailers can do to make the Thanksgiving shopping period better, while 23% said COVID-19 safety precautions including crowd control. On Black Friday specifically, 35% said better deals and 30% said COVID-19 safety precautions.
61% of adults say they do “feel safe” going to the store, up from 30% in April, according to the Deloitte survey. Shopping in stores provides the highest feeling of safety among the other choices given, such as staying in a hotel (45% said they feel safe), going to a restaurant (43%) taking a flight (33%) and returning to my workplace. (29%).
For many of us in Santa Cruz County, the local holiday season just started. Now, more than ever, we need to jump start our shopping to ensure our small local businesses survive. I am happy to report that the collaborative effort led by Visit Santa Cruz County, all county-wide chambers and business associations have worked together to push a marketing opportunity for you to buy locally. This is the time to shop on-line, buy your holiday gifts through gift certificates using the following link. https://www.rideoutthewave.org/
Tomorrow is another day closer to the end of 2020 and a day closer when the first round of the vaccine will be approved and available soon. Until then,
Stay Safe, Be Calm and Buy Local