ARTICLE
Yes, It Does Make A Difference! We are closing in on the final weeks of the 2020 political campaign. Your voter guide arrived last week and your ballot should arrive in your mailbox soon. Mine arrived on Tuesday afternoon. We all hear the rants from the sidebar conversations that my “vote doesn’t matter, it’s just a proxy anyway.” DO NOT be fooled by that misguided thought. I cannot stress this strongly enough! YOUR vote may be the one that changes and shapes history. It has happened before. It will happen again. Get out and vote like your future life depends upon it. Because it does and it is the right thing to do. The high stakes campaign for President of the United States has, and will, overshadow the state and local races. However, that should not deter you from voting. Now, more than any time in our nation’s history, with COVID—19 in play, states have taken additional steps to encourage voting. For the first time in California history, every registered voter will receive a ballot at their registered address and will be able to vote by mail. The 2020 election cycle has been the most vicious and vocal dialogue imaginable in my memory. In 1974, I voted in my first election cycle and was proud to do so. It was a midterm election, so there was no national Presidential debate. But what was transpiring in Congress at that time was the heated discussion and Senate committee hearings regarding the Watergate scandal that eventually led to President Richard Nixon resigning from office. I believe those hearings had a fundamental influence on voter turn-out and voting patterns. I have voted in every election cycle since 1974, never missing an opportunity to participate in our democracy. I can recall very little about that election, but it has since been my civic duty — every even year on the first Tuesday of November. What influence does a presidential election have on state and local elections? The answer is, a lot. The voter participation increases during the Presidential election cycle vs. off Presidential years. Let’s take a look at the voter turnout from the past few elections in Santa Cruz County showing the percentage turnout for 2008, 2012, 2016 and compare them to the mid-term election cycle of 2010, 2014 and 2018. 2016: https://www.votescount.us/Home/PastElections/November8,2016PresidentialGeneralElection/Canvass2016.aspx There were 157,204 registered voters, 132,165 votes cast (record number), turn-out percentage of 84.07% and 83,021 mail-in votes (record number). 2012: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov12/results.htm There were 158,641 registered voters, 121,323 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 76.45% and 64,372 mail-in votes. 2008: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov08/results.htm There were 148,361 registered voters, 128,555 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 86.65% and 60,502 mail-in votes. 2010: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov10/results.htm?ver=2010-11-02-010000 There were 148,500 registered voters, 98,037 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 66.02% and 50,401 mail-in votes. 2014: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov14/results.htm There were 142,405 registered voters, 74,040 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 51.99% and 43,744 mail-in votes 2018: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov18/nov18results.htm?ver=IhPyxZobqSTi0ew6nuWSqA%3d%3d There were 159,475 registered voters, 121,700 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 76.31% and 82,868 mail-in votes. A heightened Presidential election will bring out more voters. The Secretary of State and the Santa Cruz County Registrar of Voters are predicting the largest voter turn-out in our history. Here is an interesting research project that may give us key insights to the Presidential election. Princeton University has been doing research on the Presidential Race Voter Power analysis by state since 2004. You can see the update of that vote tracking here: https://election.princeton.edu/presidential-race-voter-powers-by-state/. According to the Princeton Election Consortium, “For the presidency, the calculation is done by shifting all polls by the same amount until the overall aggregate’s median result is a toss-up (i.e., close to 269 to 269 electoral votes). Voter power is then calculated by shifting the outcome in one state by a fixed number of people, and seeing how much the overall win probability is shifted. Typically, voter power is greatest in tipping-point states that are just enough to be pivotal in getting a candidate over the top. Voter power also tends to be greater in low-population states. This measure of voter power tells you the value of getting out the vote or registering voters in each state. It helps focus your activism.” The innovation in democracy calculations shows which state has the most voter power using their calculation. The top 10 states in the calculation show former Vice President Biden leading in the polls with a +/- margin of +4 to +6.4. Ironically, those states — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Nebraska, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota are battleground states. There are several key states for President Trump where, according to the calculations, he has a margin +/- rating that can determine the voter outcome in South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas, Missouri, North Dakota, Alabama and Louisiana. Of course, trends and polls only tell half the story. Voter turn-out, voter apathy, or burn out can be an influencing factor. In past years, as states closed the polls and national media started reporting the results, those early states on the East Coast and middle of country states could and did influence last minute voter turn-out. I recall sitting with a large group of Santa Cruz voters who worked on the 2016 local Measure D Transportation campaign waiting for the polls to close in California. Local election results would start to trickle in around 9 to 10 pm. It was less than 1 hour after the 8 pm close poll closing, that national news stations began reporting that Donald Trump had defeated Hilary Clinton. I won’t predict the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election. I will leave that to the election experts to make those predictions. What I can say for certain, with a national trend of mail-in voters predicted to be the largest ever, the election results will turn on those early voters by mail. The story here is simple - vote- it is your civic duty. We are very fortunate in Santa Cruz County where our election department is run by Gail Pellerin who is noted as one of the best registrars in California. And we are a county that takes our civic responsibility seriously, as our voter turn-out history shows. Let's set a county record this year with the most registered voters ever, the most votes cast and the highest percentage ever. You can get your voter information here: https://www.votescount.us/MainMenu/VoterRegistration.aspx
Yes, It Does Make A Difference!
We are closing in on the final weeks of the 2020 political campaign. Your voter guide arrived last week and your ballot should arrive in your mailbox soon. Mine arrived on Tuesday afternoon. We all hear the rants from the sidebar conversations that my “vote doesn’t matter, it’s just a proxy anyway.” DO NOT be fooled by that misguided thought.
I cannot stress this strongly enough! YOUR vote may be the one that changes and shapes history. It has happened before. It will happen again. Get out and vote like your future life depends upon it. Because it does and it is the right thing to do. The high stakes campaign for President of the United States has, and will, overshadow the state and local races. However, that should not deter you from voting. Now, more than any time in our nation’s history, with COVID—19 in play, states have taken additional steps to encourage voting. For the first time in California history, every registered voter will receive a ballot at their registered address and will be able to vote by mail.
The 2020 election cycle has been the most vicious and vocal dialogue imaginable in my memory. In 1974, I voted in my first election cycle and was proud to do so. It was a midterm election, so there was no national Presidential debate. But what was transpiring in Congress at that time was the heated discussion and Senate committee hearings regarding the Watergate scandal that eventually led to President Richard Nixon resigning from office. I believe those hearings had a fundamental influence on voter turn-out and voting patterns.
I have voted in every election cycle since 1974, never missing an opportunity to participate in our democracy. I can recall very little about that election, but it has since been my civic duty — every even year on the first Tuesday of November.
What influence does a presidential election have on state and local elections? The answer is, a lot. The voter participation increases during the Presidential election cycle vs. off Presidential years.
Let’s take a look at the voter turnout from the past few elections in Santa Cruz County showing the percentage turnout for 2008, 2012, 2016 and compare them to the mid-term election cycle of 2010, 2014 and 2018.
2016: https://www.votescount.us/Home/PastElections/November8,2016PresidentialGeneralElection/Canvass2016.aspx
There were 157,204 registered voters, 132,165 votes cast (record number), turn-out percentage of 84.07% and 83,021 mail-in votes (record number).
2012: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov12/results.htm
There were 158,641 registered voters, 121,323 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 76.45% and 64,372 mail-in votes.
2008: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov08/results.htm
There were 148,361 registered voters, 128,555 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 86.65% and 60,502 mail-in votes.
2010: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov10/results.htm?ver=2010-11-02-010000
There were 148,500 registered voters, 98,037 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 66.02% and 50,401 mail-in votes.
2014: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov14/results.htm There were 142,405 registered voters, 74,040 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 51.99% and 43,744 mail-in votes
2018: https://www.votescount.us/Portals/16/nov18/nov18results.htm?ver=IhPyxZobqSTi0ew6nuWSqA%3d%3d There were 159,475 registered voters, 121,700 votes cast, turn-out percentage of 76.31% and 82,868 mail-in votes.
A heightened Presidential election will bring out more voters. The Secretary of State and the Santa Cruz County Registrar of Voters are predicting the largest voter turn-out in our history.
Here is an interesting research project that may give us key insights to the Presidential election. Princeton University has been doing research on the Presidential Race Voter Power analysis by state since 2004. You can see the update of that vote tracking here: https://election.princeton.edu/presidential-race-voter-powers-by-state/.
According to the Princeton Election Consortium, “For the presidency, the calculation is done by shifting all polls by the same amount until the overall aggregate’s median result is a toss-up (i.e., close to 269 to 269 electoral votes). Voter power is then calculated by shifting the outcome in one state by a fixed number of people, and seeing how much the overall win probability is shifted. Typically, voter power is greatest in tipping-point states that are just enough to be pivotal in getting a candidate over the top. Voter power also tends to be greater in low-population states. This measure of voter power tells you the value of getting out the vote or registering voters in each state. It helps focus your activism.”
The innovation in democracy calculations shows which state has the most voter power using their calculation. The top 10 states in the calculation show former Vice President Biden leading in the polls with a +/- margin of +4 to +6.4. Ironically, those states — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Nebraska, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota are battleground states.
There are several key states for President Trump where, according to the calculations, he has a margin +/- rating that can determine the voter outcome in South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas, Missouri, North Dakota, Alabama and Louisiana.
Of course, trends and polls only tell half the story. Voter turn-out, voter apathy, or burn out can be an influencing factor. In past years, as states closed the polls and national media started reporting the results, those early states on the East Coast and middle of country states could and did influence last minute voter turn-out. I recall sitting with a large group of Santa Cruz voters who worked on the 2016 local Measure D Transportation campaign waiting for the polls to close in California. Local election results would start to trickle in around 9 to 10 pm. It was less than 1 hour after the 8 pm close poll closing, that national news stations began reporting that Donald Trump had defeated Hilary Clinton.
I won’t predict the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election. I will leave that to the election experts to make those predictions. What I can say for certain, with a national trend of mail-in voters predicted to be the largest ever, the election results will turn on those early voters by mail.
The story here is simple - vote- it is your civic duty. We are very fortunate in Santa Cruz County where our election department is run by Gail Pellerin who is noted as one of the best registrars in California. And we are a county that takes our civic responsibility seriously, as our voter turn-out history shows. Let's set a county record this year with the most registered voters ever, the most votes cast and the highest percentage ever. You can get your voter information here: https://www.votescount.us/MainMenu/VoterRegistration.aspx