ARTICLE
Let’s Cruz Again — Safely It has been a long and sometimes hot muggy summer and the wildfires have consumed California rural forests and foothills. The smoke-filled sky has made California’s air quality the worst in the world. Wildfire smoke from the enormous fires blazing on the West Coast has made its way to the East Coast, bringing hazy conditions for the next few days, meteorologists said. A large-scale weather pattern with a ridge of high pressure blew smoke from blazes in California, Oregon, and Washington across the country and into East Coast cities including New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Just due to the sheer number of wildfires and the amount of smoke that it’s giving off — combined with the direction of the winds in the upper part of the atmosphere are blowing — has allowed it to transport,” said Matt Solum, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Western Region headquarters in Salt Lake City. As I write this weekly eNews, the air quality in Santa Cruz County is slowly recovering and by week’s end, we hope to have clearer skies. However, when we couple the wildfires with the pandemic, we are not on the shorter recovery path for our local economy. As we begin to collect the economic and employment data for the summer months, it is very clear that the Summer of 2020 is like no other in recent memory. Let’s take a look at a few roughly collected data points, with the understanding that the County’s top economic engines — agriculture and tourism — have been significantly impacted because of COVID — 19 and now the wildfires. It will be some time before we have a full accounting on the severity of the fires on agriculture products so my focus today is on what we know and what we anticipate is the impact on our tourism-based economy. It will be well into the first quarter of 2021 before we have a full accounting or the economic impact of COVID - 19 and the Wildfires. Some of this raw data is coming from our partners, Visit Santa Cruz County, the California Lodging Industry, and the California Restaurant Association. Tourism and the Santa Cruz County Economy: In 2019 visitors spent nearly $1 Billion in Santa Cruz County on restaurants, shopping, activities, and lodging. We anticipate losing at least 50% of this spending in the coming year (2020). Current Unemployment: Unemployment figures continue to grow, and additional benefits have expired, over 4,000 individuals, representing 25% of the hospitality workforce, are unemployed and suffering ongoing impacts both economic and otherwise. As the summer season ends, more impacts are expected as group events at hotels will be nonexistent and most UCSC students will be absent and not return to frequent local shops and cafes. Winter Unemployment: Ongoing impacts and continued increases in unemployment are expected to grow significantly heading into the winter months and thousands of local hospitality workers will have to try to live on unemployment benefits ranging from $40 to $750 per week. In a typical year, Santa Cruz County’s tourist season begins to slow in mid-November through March. Under the current trends, the “real” tourist season never happened from March to September. Reduced tax receipts: Reductions in sales tax and transient occupancy tax (TOT) is causing cuts in City and County services. It is anticipated additional cuts and loss of services will grow. In a normal year, TOT receipts alone would generate over $24 million. Current trends indicate a loss of at least half of this amount. Quality of Life: The local tax base depends on a variety of tourism-related revenues that, in a normal year total approximately $50 million. At least 50% of these revenues are expected to be lost this year, directly impacting resident services. Examples of impacted services could include fire response, law enforcement, parks, and recreation budgets, and social service funding, to mention a few. This may also lead to layoffs at our county and city agencies. Safety Compliance: Local hospitality businesses including restaurants, retailers, attractions, and hotels have implemented specific COVID-19 Safety measures and are actively working to support compliance requiring that customers wear masks and practice social distancing. Restaurant and Hospitality Santa Cruz County has many small, locally-owned restaurants that depend on the local customer base as well as visitors. Restrictions on indoor dining capacity and reduced capacity for businesses, in general, threatens the survival of many of our unique and beloved eateries. In the last six months the following restaurants have permanently closed; 99 Bottles, Cremer House, Gilda’s, Paradise Beach Grille, The Poet and the Patriot, Bistro One Twelve, Butter Cupcakes, Pono Hawaiian Grill, and others. This is a partial list and represents only those businesses that have been identified so far. We know a few restaurants plan to re-open when the pandemic trends allow for an easing of the restrictions. Some have remained open but have experienced a 30-50% loss in customers and revenue. All businesses should bookmark this page so you can keep up on the state’s guidelines: https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/ Before the Pandemic, an estimated 1.4 million Californians worked in restaurants. Since March, over 60% of restaurant workers have either been laid off or furloughed – and many continue to wait for their unemployment payments.” 60% of California restaurants are owned by people of color, and 50% of California restaurants are owned or partly owned by women*. In a recent survey conducted by the California Restaurant Association: o 60% of restaurants who had received help from the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program ran out of funds at the end of August. o 63% of respondents have not received any rent relief and a staggering 76% indicate they are in immediate need of assistance. o 30% of restaurant owners say they will either close permanently, or they will downsize by closing some locations. (This is in addition to thousands that have already closed). Lodging Industry o Since March local hotel occupancy and rates have been cut in half as have related Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) due to travel impacts related to COVID-19. o Thousands of hotel workers have been laid off. o Reductions in hotel occupancy means less spending in other local businesses. For every dollar spent on lodging, $2 is spent in local shops, restaurants, and on activities and attractions. o The county government, and each City within Santa Cruz County, depend on hotel taxes to provide services to residents. Given current statistics, TOT collections will decrease by half for an estimated loss of over $12 million. Santa Cruz County Retail/Service Industries: o Initial estimates on overall sales tax losses indicate at least a 25% decrease. Losses are expected to continue to mount moving forward for the coming year. o In the last six months, the following permanent closures of retail stores include Walgreens, Agile Monkey, O’My Sole, Judy Wyant, Leah’s Magical Pieces, Rare Bird Salon, Eco Goods and Nourish. (This is not an extensive list as we continue to gather new information as we reach out to our local businesses). So where does that takes us for the remaining (shortened) potential tourist season? There is glaring concern that we might see an uptick in the COVID -19 numbers because of the Labor Day holidays. The current trends show Santa Cruz County is holding steady below the state guidelines for our current Red Tier status. If it holds there is the probability that we will again move into the next Orange Tier status which reduces the restrictions levels. You can see the interactive current COVID — 19 Data dashboard here: https://www.santacruzhealth.org/HSAHome/HSADivisions/PublicHealth/CommunicableDiseaseControl/CoronavirusHome.aspx. That is why the Visit Santa Cruz County board determined it was possible to initiate a shorter marketing plan in the hopes to tell locals and visitors that Santa Cruz is a safe place to visit. “Let’s Cruz Again” (Safely) videos began to go live this week. The Santa Cruz County Chamber supports this marketing plan and believes that our businesses will continue to make their place of business — restaurants, hotels and retail shops — a safe place to visit and buy locally. You can see the videos here: Regional: http://bit.ly/Regional-Lets-Cruz-Safely Local: http://bit.ly/Local-Lets-Cruz-Safely Will this make a positive impact on our late summer and early fall season? We won’t know unless we try. I believe the risk vs. reward is favorable, and if it keeps a person employed, a business owner running their operations and provides revenue to the county — following COVID— 19 safe protocols, it is worth the effort.
Let’s Cruz Again — Safely
It has been a long and sometimes hot muggy summer and the wildfires have consumed California rural forests and foothills. The smoke-filled sky has made California’s air quality the worst in the world. Wildfire smoke from the enormous fires blazing on the West Coast has made its way to the East Coast, bringing hazy conditions for the next few days, meteorologists said. A large-scale weather pattern with a ridge of high pressure blew smoke from blazes in California, Oregon, and Washington across the country and into East Coast cities including New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Just due to the sheer number of wildfires and the amount of smoke that it’s giving off — combined with the direction of the winds in the upper part of the atmosphere are blowing — has allowed it to transport,” said Matt Solum, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Western Region headquarters in Salt Lake City.
As I write this weekly eNews, the air quality in Santa Cruz County is slowly recovering and by week’s end, we hope to have clearer skies. However, when we couple the wildfires with the pandemic, we are not on the shorter recovery path for our local economy. As we begin to collect the economic and employment data for the summer months, it is very clear that the Summer of 2020 is like no other in recent memory.
Let’s take a look at a few roughly collected data points, with the understanding that the County’s top economic engines — agriculture and tourism — have been significantly impacted because of COVID — 19 and now the wildfires. It will be some time before we have a full accounting on the severity of the fires on agriculture products so my focus today is on what we know and what we anticipate is the impact on our tourism-based economy. It will be well into the first quarter of 2021 before we have a full accounting or the economic impact of COVID - 19 and the Wildfires. Some of this raw data is coming from our partners, Visit Santa Cruz County, the California Lodging Industry, and the California Restaurant Association.
Tourism and the Santa Cruz County Economy: In 2019 visitors spent nearly $1 Billion in Santa Cruz County on restaurants, shopping, activities, and lodging. We anticipate losing at least 50% of this spending in the coming year (2020).
Current Unemployment: Unemployment figures continue to grow, and additional benefits have expired, over 4,000 individuals, representing 25% of the hospitality workforce, are unemployed and suffering ongoing impacts both economic and otherwise. As the summer season ends, more impacts are expected as group events at hotels will be nonexistent and most UCSC students will be absent and not return to frequent local shops and cafes.
Winter Unemployment: Ongoing impacts and continued increases in unemployment are expected to grow significantly heading into the winter months and thousands of local hospitality workers will have to try to live on unemployment benefits ranging from $40 to $750 per week. In a typical year, Santa Cruz County’s tourist season begins to slow in mid-November through March. Under the current trends, the “real” tourist season never happened from March to September.
Reduced tax receipts: Reductions in sales tax and transient occupancy tax (TOT) is causing cuts in City and County services. It is anticipated additional cuts and loss of services will grow. In a normal year, TOT receipts alone would generate over $24 million. Current trends indicate a loss of at least half of this amount.
Quality of Life: The local tax base depends on a variety of tourism-related revenues that, in a normal year total approximately $50 million. At least 50% of these revenues are expected to be lost this year, directly impacting resident services. Examples of impacted services could include fire response, law enforcement, parks, and recreation budgets, and social service funding, to mention a few. This may also lead to layoffs at our county and city agencies.
Safety Compliance: Local hospitality businesses including restaurants, retailers, attractions, and hotels have implemented specific COVID-19 Safety measures and are actively working to support compliance requiring that customers wear masks and practice social distancing.
Restaurant and Hospitality
Santa Cruz County has many small, locally-owned restaurants that depend on the local customer base as well as visitors. Restrictions on indoor dining capacity and reduced capacity for businesses, in general, threatens the survival of many of our unique and beloved eateries. In the last six months the following restaurants have permanently closed; 99 Bottles, Cremer House, Gilda’s, Paradise Beach Grille, The Poet and the Patriot, Bistro One Twelve, Butter Cupcakes, Pono Hawaiian Grill, and others. This is a partial list and represents only those businesses that have been identified so far. We know a few restaurants plan to re-open when the pandemic trends allow for an easing of the restrictions. Some have remained open but have experienced a 30-50% loss in customers and revenue.
All businesses should bookmark this page so you can keep up on the state’s guidelines: https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/
Before the Pandemic, an estimated 1.4 million Californians worked in restaurants. Since March, over 60% of restaurant workers have either been laid off or furloughed – and many continue to wait for their unemployment payments.” 60% of California restaurants are owned by people of color, and 50% of California restaurants are owned or partly owned by women*.
In a recent survey conducted by the California Restaurant Association:
Lodging Industry
Santa Cruz County Retail/Service Industries:
So where does that takes us for the remaining (shortened) potential tourist season? There is glaring concern that we might see an uptick in the COVID -19 numbers because of the Labor Day holidays. The current trends show Santa Cruz County is holding steady below the state guidelines for our current Red Tier status. If it holds there is the probability that we will again move into the next Orange Tier status which reduces the restrictions levels. You can see the interactive current COVID — 19 Data dashboard here: https://www.santacruzhealth.org/HSAHome/HSADivisions/PublicHealth/CommunicableDiseaseControl/CoronavirusHome.aspx.
That is why the Visit Santa Cruz County board determined it was possible to initiate a shorter marketing plan in the hopes to tell locals and visitors that Santa Cruz is a safe place to visit. “Let’s Cruz Again” (Safely) videos began to go live this week. The Santa Cruz County Chamber supports this marketing plan and believes that our businesses will continue to make their place of business — restaurants, hotels and retail shops — a safe place to visit and buy locally. You can see the videos here: Regional: http://bit.ly/Regional-Lets-Cruz-Safely Local: http://bit.ly/Local-Lets-Cruz-Safely Will this make a positive impact on our late summer and early fall season? We won’t know unless we try. I believe the risk vs. reward is favorable, and if it keeps a person employed, a business owner running their operations and provides revenue to the county — following COVID— 19 safe protocols, it is worth the effort.