ARTICLE
What a whirl-wind week, or should I say a few weeks that have transpired for the World, the US and local communities to respond the Coronavirus — COVID 19. We are just beginning to feel the health and public safety impact of this virus and the looming challenges ahead for the world’s medical experts to find a cure. Now we are in “slow the movement of the virus phase” by controlling human behavior and on a case-by-case basis addressing individual victims who are in isolation, self-quarantine or medical facilities safely away from the public. As the CEO of the Santa Cruz County Chamber of Commerce, it is my responsibility to ensure the health and safety for our members, our staff and the greater Santa Cruz business community. The global reach of this virus has made its way into our community, and the public health professionals with guidance from the world, national and state health experts are quickly defining the next precautionary steps necessary to protect the public. Earlier this week, the Chamber’s Executive Committee and I made the decision to postpone one of the Chamber’s signature events — the 31st Annual Business Expo. This event is a ‘gathering’ of local business and non-profits to showcase their products, programs and people. The expo usually draws 1000 to 1500 visitors for an afternoon of networking. We made this decision to postpone the expo because it was the right thing to do for our community’s public safety, health and wellbeing. We are evaluating all Chamber business practices and following standard health protocols from the County Health Officers. When we first heard about the coronavirus outbreak, we must acknowledge this is a human tragedy, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. It is also having a growing impact on the global economy. Less than ten weeks have passed since China reported the existence of a new virus to the World Health Organization. This virus, now known as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 disease, spread quickly in the city of Wuhan and throughout China. The country has experienced a deep humanitarian challenge, with more than 100,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths. COVID-19 progressed quickly beyond China’s borders. Four other major transmission complexes are now established across the world: East Asia (especially South Korea, with more than 7,000 cases, as well as Singapore and Japan), the Middle East (centered in Iran, with more than 6,500 cases), Europe (especially the Lombardy region in northern Italy, with more than 7,300 cases, but with widespread transmission across the continent), and the United States, with more than 1,000 cases. Each of these transmission complexes has sprung up in a region where millions of people travel every day for social and economic reasons, making it difficult to prevent the spread of the disease. The next phases of the outbreak are profoundly uncertain. In my view, the prevalent direction, focused on pandemic, to which both markets and policy makers have gravitated as they respond to the virus, is possible. What we know: Epidemiologists are in general agreement on two characteristics of COVID-19. The virus is highly transmissible. Both observed experience and emerging scientific evidence show that the virus causing COVID-19 is easily transmitted from person to person. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the virus’s reproduction number (the number of additional cases that likely result from an initial case) is between 1.6 and 2.4, making COVID-19 significantly more transmissible than the seasonal flu (whose reproduction number is estimated at 1.2 to 1.4). The virus disproportionately affects older people with underlying conditions. Epidemiologists Zunyou Wu and Jennifer McGoogan analyzed a report from China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that looked at more than 72,000 cases and concluded that the fatality rate for patients 80 and older was seven times the average, and three to four times the average for patients in their 70s. You can read an insightful analysis from McKinsey & Company here: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business Closer to home, Santa Cruz County and the City of Santa Cruz have declared a local health emergency because of COVID-19. The resolutions are here: http://scsire.cityofsantacruz.com/sirepub/cache/2/ghcsnnavaubummm4bxmvxfsl/494058403112020084501266.PDF http://santacruzhealth.org/HSAHome/HSADivisions/PublicHealth/CommunicableDiseaseControl/Coronavirus.aspx Alesha Green, the Managing Editor of the Good Times, Santa Cruz has provided a well-written story on the local reaction to the COVID-19. You can read her article here: http://goodtimes.sc/santa-cruz-news/slowing-coronavirus-spread-santa-cruz-county/ Economic Assumptions: According to the McKinsey & Company report there are three broad economic scenarios that might unfold: a quick recovery, a global slowdown, and a pandemic-driven recession. The prevalent pessimistic narrative (which both markets and policy makers seem to favor as they respond to the virus) underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome to COVID-19 evolution. Their summary follows: Quick Recovery: In this scenario, case count continues to grow, given the virus’s high transmissibility. While this inevitably causes a strong public reaction and drop in demand, other countries are able to achieve the same rapid control seen in China, so that the peak in public concern comes relatively soon (within one to two weeks). Given the low fatality rates in children and working-age adults, we might also see levels of concern start to ebb even as the disease continues to spread. Working-age adults remain concerned about their parents and older friends, neighbors, and colleagues, and take steps to ensure their safety. Older people, especially those with underlying conditions, pull back from many activities. Most people outside the transmission complexes continue their normal daily lives. Global Slowdown: This scenario assumes that most countries are not able to achieve the same rapid control that China managed. In Europe and the United States, transmission is high but remains localized, partly because individuals, firms, and governments take strong countermeasures (including school closings and cancellation of public events). For the United States, the scenario assumes between 10,000 and 500,000 total cases. It assumes one major epicenter with 40 to 50 percent of all cases, two or three smaller centers with 10 to 15 percent of all cases, and a “long tail” of towns with a handful or a few dozen cases. This scenario sees some spread in Africa, India, and other densely populated areas, but the transmissibility of the virus declines naturally with the northern hemisphere spring. Pandemic and Recession: This scenario is similar to the global slowdown, except it assumes that the virus is not seasonal (unaffected by spring in the northern hemisphere). Case growth continues throughout Q2 and Q3, potentially overwhelming healthcare systems around the world and pushing out a recovery in consumer confidence to Q3 or beyond. This scenario results in a recession, with global growth in 2020 falling to between – 1.5 percent and 0.5 percent. On Tuesday, I participated in a state-wide conference call led by Lenny Mendonca, the Chief Economic and Business Advisor to Governor Gavin Newsom, and included state agency department heads from the Department of Health Services, Employment Development Department, Cal OSHA, Office of Emergency Services and the Labor Department. Listed below is information on their websites responding to COVID-19. 1. Information on GO-Biz's website 2. Information on EDD's website 3.Information on CDPH's webs Always the optimistic, over my career I have weathered numerous federally declared natural emergencies from earthquakes, floods, wildfires, economic downturns of the 1980s and 1900s, the dot.com era followed by 9-11, and the financial meltdown of 2008 to name a few. Now we face Coronavirus (COVID-19). What I have experienced through all these challenges is America’s resilience to fight through each challenge, utilizing our innovative brainpower to seek new solutions. If we focus on common sense objectives, follow the science and facts, remain calm and flexible, we will find our way through this crisis.
What a whirl-wind week, or should I say a few weeks that have transpired for the World, the US and local communities to respond the Coronavirus — COVID 19. We are just beginning to feel the health and public safety impact of this virus and the looming challenges ahead for the world’s medical experts to find a cure. Now we are in “slow the movement of the virus phase” by controlling human behavior and on a case-by-case basis addressing individual victims who are in isolation, self-quarantine or medical facilities safely away from the public.
As the CEO of the Santa Cruz County Chamber of Commerce, it is my responsibility to ensure the health and safety for our members, our staff and the greater Santa Cruz business community. The global reach of this virus has made its way into our community, and the public health professionals with guidance from the world, national and state health experts are quickly defining the next precautionary steps necessary to protect the public.
Earlier this week, the Chamber’s Executive Committee and I made the decision to postpone one of the Chamber’s signature events — the 31st Annual Business Expo. This event is a ‘gathering’ of local business and non-profits to showcase their products, programs and people. The expo usually draws 1000 to 1500 visitors for an afternoon of networking.
We made this decision to postpone the expo because it was the right thing to do for our community’s public safety, health and wellbeing. We are evaluating all Chamber business practices and following standard health protocols from the County Health Officers.
When we first heard about the coronavirus outbreak, we must acknowledge this is a human tragedy, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. It is also having a growing impact on the global economy. Less than ten weeks have passed since China reported the existence of a new virus to the World Health Organization. This virus, now known as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 disease, spread quickly in the city of Wuhan and throughout China. The country has experienced a deep humanitarian challenge, with more than 100,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths. COVID-19 progressed quickly beyond China’s borders. Four other major transmission complexes are now established across the world: East Asia (especially South Korea, with more than 7,000 cases, as well as Singapore and Japan), the Middle East (centered in Iran, with more than 6,500 cases), Europe (especially the Lombardy region in northern Italy, with more than 7,300 cases, but with widespread transmission across the continent), and the United States, with more than 1,000 cases. Each of these transmission complexes has sprung up in a region where millions of people travel every day for social and economic reasons, making it difficult to prevent the spread of the disease.
The next phases of the outbreak are profoundly uncertain. In my view, the prevalent direction, focused on pandemic, to which both markets and policy makers have gravitated as they respond to the virus, is possible.
What we know: Epidemiologists are in general agreement on two characteristics of COVID-19. The virus is highly transmissible. Both observed experience and emerging scientific evidence show that the virus causing COVID-19 is easily transmitted from person to person. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the virus’s reproduction number (the number of additional cases that likely result from an initial case) is between 1.6 and 2.4, making COVID-19 significantly more transmissible than the seasonal flu (whose reproduction number is estimated at 1.2 to 1.4).
The virus disproportionately affects older people with underlying conditions. Epidemiologists Zunyou Wu and Jennifer McGoogan analyzed a report from China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that looked at more than 72,000 cases and concluded that the fatality rate for patients 80 and older was seven times the average, and three to four times the average for patients in their 70s.
You can read an insightful analysis from McKinsey & Company here:
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business
Closer to home, Santa Cruz County and the City of Santa Cruz have declared a local health emergency because of COVID-19. The resolutions are here: http://scsire.cityofsantacruz.com/sirepub/cache/2/ghcsnnavaubummm4bxmvxfsl/494058403112020084501266.PDF
http://santacruzhealth.org/HSAHome/HSADivisions/PublicHealth/CommunicableDiseaseControl/Coronavirus.aspx
Alesha Green, the Managing Editor of the Good Times, Santa Cruz has provided a well-written story on the local reaction to the COVID-19. You can read her article here: http://goodtimes.sc/santa-cruz-news/slowing-coronavirus-spread-santa-cruz-county/
Economic Assumptions:
According to the McKinsey & Company report there are three broad economic scenarios that might unfold: a quick recovery, a global slowdown, and a pandemic-driven recession. The prevalent pessimistic narrative (which both markets and policy makers seem to favor as they respond to the virus) underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome to COVID-19 evolution. Their summary follows:
Quick Recovery:
In this scenario, case count continues to grow, given the virus’s high transmissibility. While this inevitably causes a strong public reaction and drop in demand, other countries are able to achieve the same rapid control seen in China, so that the peak in public concern comes relatively soon (within one to two weeks). Given the low fatality rates in children and working-age adults, we might also see levels of concern start to ebb even as the disease continues to spread. Working-age adults remain concerned about their parents and older friends, neighbors, and colleagues, and take steps to ensure their safety. Older people, especially those with underlying conditions, pull back from many activities. Most people outside the transmission complexes continue their normal daily lives.
Global Slowdown:
This scenario assumes that most countries are not able to achieve the same rapid control that China managed. In Europe and the United States, transmission is high but remains localized, partly because individuals, firms, and governments take strong countermeasures (including school closings and cancellation of public events). For the United States, the scenario assumes between 10,000 and 500,000 total cases. It assumes one major epicenter with 40 to 50 percent of all cases, two or three smaller centers with 10 to 15 percent of all cases, and a “long tail” of towns with a handful or a few dozen cases. This scenario sees some spread in Africa, India, and other densely populated areas, but the transmissibility of the virus declines naturally with the northern hemisphere spring.
Pandemic and Recession:
This scenario is similar to the global slowdown, except it assumes that the virus is not seasonal (unaffected by spring in the northern hemisphere). Case growth continues throughout Q2 and Q3, potentially overwhelming healthcare systems around the world and pushing out a recovery in consumer confidence to Q3 or beyond. This scenario results in a recession, with global growth in 2020 falling to between – 1.5 percent and 0.5 percent.
On Tuesday, I participated in a state-wide conference call led by Lenny Mendonca, the Chief Economic and Business Advisor to Governor Gavin Newsom, and included state agency department heads from the Department of Health Services, Employment Development Department, Cal OSHA, Office of Emergency Services and the Labor Department. Listed below is information on their websites responding to COVID-19.
1. Information on GO-Biz's website 2. Information on EDD's website 3.Information on CDPH's webs
Always the optimistic, over my career I have weathered numerous federally declared natural emergencies from earthquakes, floods, wildfires, economic downturns of the 1980s and 1900s, the dot.com era followed by 9-11, and the financial meltdown of 2008 to name a few. Now we face Coronavirus (COVID-19). What I have experienced through all these challenges is America’s resilience to fight through each challenge, utilizing our innovative brainpower to seek new solutions. If we focus on common sense objectives, follow the science and facts, remain calm and flexible, we will find our way through this crisis.