ARTICLE
Super Tuesday has come and gone — the final a vote tally will not be complete for some time, but the magnitude of the Democratic Presidential election has been an on-going must watch Reality TV show. As Super Tuesday neared we could see a race solidifying as a multi-way contest between several top tier candidates — each candidate having seemingly earned their position over the course of a long campaign. Even the addition of former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire, took a natural steady path through polling. He began in single digits in December, then rose steadily in January and February, reaching a high water mark in a survey of early by-mail voters, in which he achieved 20% and the second spot in the race in California. Yet everything changed in the last 36 hours before Super Tuesday, and we now see that for one of the most tumultuous California election nights in recent history happened. In those 36 plus hours, Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the race. Buttigieg and Klobuchar threw their support to VP Joe Biden. After a blurring list of Super Tuesday elections in fourteen states, American Samoa and ‘Democrats abroad’ is set to leave 1,357 pledged delegates at stake. The states in play are Vermont, Virginia, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, Utah, and Colorado. And California is the super prize with the largest catch of delegate votes. As Tuesday results began to trickle in with Biden an early winner in Virginia and North Carolina, and Sanders winning his home state of Vermont, a pattern arises impacting the late voters in the southern and western states of Utah, Colorado, Texas and California. As voters saw a winner in one state, did they begin to recalculate their vote before California polls closed at 8 pm? It appears that the late surge by VP Biden has made a difference. I recall many years ago, in the 1980 General Presidential election that the national election was called in Ronald Reagan’s favor several hours before the polls closed on the West Coast - prompting concern that many voters just stayed home. Today, vote by mail systems, and the efficiency of the new voting systems mean many voters had already voted before the news arrived about Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the race. Those who voted for those candidates are considered “zombie votes.” What matters most though is how this Presidential election sweepstakes has an impacted voter turnout in California and in particular, in Santa Cruz County where many ‘down ballot races’ for state senate, assembly, county supervisors, recall of city councilmembers and replacement candidates and local tax and school bond measures are effected by the Presidential race. While the vote counting continues throughout California and Santa Cruz County, the final results won’t come until the end of March, it appears that the Presidential race increased voter turn-out statewide. VP Joe Biden had a long string of wins on Super Tuesday taking 10 states and Senator Bernie Sanders came away with 3 states, including California. Thus at this stage of the Presidential election cycle, it appears that it will be a two person race for the Democratic nomination. Early Wednesday morning billionaire Michael Bloomberg dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden. Senator Elizabeth Warren took it on the chin on Super Tuesday including losing her home state of Massachusetts. Her future status is uncertain as we post this eNews. So what happened here along the Central Coast and in Santa Cruz County? Were there any surprises? You can see the ‘unofficial’ results here: https://sccounty01.co.santa-cruz.ca.us/ElectionSites/ElectionResults/Results. These results are for only Santa Cruz County so in some cases where a legislative district includes more than one county — the final vote tally may be different. Let’s break it down on the local races: 18th Congressional District (includes Santa Clara, San Mateo and portion of Santa Cruz County): incumbent Anna Eshoo (D) secured a large lead but since 2012 when the California voters approved an “open primary — some refer to it as the jungle primary where the two top voter getters are in a run off in November. This applies to Congressional and state races. It appears Rishi Kumar (R) will be in the run-off. 20th Congressional District (includes Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz and portion of Santa Clara County): incumbent Jimmy Panetta (D) has a large lead but it appears that Jeff Gorman (R) has a slight lead to make the run-off. 17th Senate District (includes Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties): an open seat where Senator Bill Monning is termed out. Long time public elected official and Santa Cruz resident John Laird (D) has the lead in the race and it appears that Vicki Norhden (R) is a distant second. 29th Assembly District (includes Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito Counties): incumbent Mark Stone (D) has a commanding lead but will be in a November run-off against Shomer Banerjee (R) 30th Assembly District (includes parts of Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito Counties): incumbent Robert Rivas (D) has a large lead but will face off against Gregory Sweet (R) in November. Santa Cruz County 1st District Supervisor (includes Live Oak, parts of Capitola, Soquel and up to Summit and parts of Scotts Valley southwest of highway 17): incumbent John Leopold has a solid lead but is shy of the 50% + 1 to avoid a run-off. Manu Koenig placed second and will be on the ballot in November. Santa Cruz County 2nd District Supervisor (includes Aptos, portions of Capitola, LaSelva, Corralitos and part of Watsonville): incumbent Zach Friend has a commanding lead with nearly 70% of the vote tallied and will avoid a November run-off. Santa Cruz County 5th District Supervisor (includes portions of Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley and the San Lorenzo Valley): incumbent Bruce McPherson ran unopposed and will start his third term as supervisor. Santa Cruz Recall of Councilmember Drew Glover: At post time, it appears that with 75% of the vote tallied that the Yes on Recall leads 56% to 43%. If those numbers hold, Renee Golder has a commanding lead to replace Councilmember Glover. Santa Cruz Recall of Councilmember Chris Krohn: The current vote tally has Yes on the Recall with 54% to 45% lead. If those numbers hold, it appears that Katherine Beiers has an 11% lead over Don Lane to replace Councilmember Krohn. Santa Cruz County Superior Judge: In the Superior Court Judge race, Nancy de la Pena looks to have won this race with 43% of the vote. State Proposition 13 School Bond: the only state initiative on the March ballot has a 9% lead in Santa Cruz County. However, the largest school facility bond in state history was falling short of the simple majority needed in early returns Tuesday. Proposition 13 would push $15 billion in bonds to California’s schools, public universities and community colleges to upgrade facilities and build new ones. It may take a few weeks to sort out these results. Measure R — the Cabrillo College Bond is shy of reaching the 55% voter approval threshold as of Wednesday morning with a 50.29% yes and 49.71% no. If this vote patterns holds it will be the second time in four years that the College has not secured voter approval. Measure S — San Lorenzo Valley District Bond is also 3% shy of the 55% threshold voter approval. Measure T and Measure U — the Santa Cruz City Schools Bond - a continuation of the current bond — but these parcel tax measures if approved have no sunset date. Both Measures have commanding leads above the 66.6% voter threshold: T at 70.36% and U at 76.64%. Measure V — Soquel School District Parcel Tax is shy of the 2/3 voter approval threshold at 60%. Measure W — Santa Cruz City Public Works Charter Amendment has garnered 79% of the votes. Measure X — Santa Cruz City School Trustee District has a 76% voter approval which would create city school trustee district races instead of at-large races. Measure Y — Watsonville Sales Tax for Public Safety requires 2/3 voter approval and has 76% of the current vote. Measure Z — Santa Cruz Sales Tax requires a simple majority vote has received 62% voter approval. Our summary analysis of the current March 3 results shows that the City of Santa Cruz, Watsonville and Scotts Valley voters supported tax measures to improve schools while the Soquel and Cabrillo College did not garner the necessary votes. For the congressional, state assembly — the leading voter getters were predictable incumbents. For the 17th senate district race, John Laird has a challenger but the district has not elected a Republican since redistricting in 2010. The interest of voters to change the makeup of the Santa Cruz City Council proved to be a very close but if the vote pattern holds we will have two new council members once the final tally is certified. Since the primary election was moved to March — the Democratic controlled state legislator wanted to have California in play for the Presidential sweepstakes and it appears it worked. It is a long way from March 3 to the November 3 general election with many presidential primaries ahead of us before the two parties hold their National Conventions later this summer. As Yogi Berra once stated: “It ain’t over until it’s over.” The 2020 election cycle will be fascinating to watch.
Super Tuesday has come and gone — the final a vote tally will not be complete for some time, but the magnitude of the Democratic Presidential election has been an on-going must watch Reality TV show.
As Super Tuesday neared we could see a race solidifying as a multi-way contest between several top tier candidates — each candidate having seemingly earned their position over the course of a long campaign. Even the addition of former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire, took a natural steady path through polling. He began in single digits in December, then rose steadily in January and February, reaching a high water mark in a survey of early by-mail voters, in which he achieved 20% and the second spot in the race in California.
Yet everything changed in the last 36 hours before Super Tuesday, and we now see that for one of the most tumultuous California election nights in recent history happened. In those 36 plus hours, Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the race. Buttigieg and Klobuchar threw their support to VP Joe Biden.
After a blurring list of Super Tuesday elections in fourteen states, American Samoa and ‘Democrats abroad’ is set to leave 1,357 pledged delegates at stake. The states in play are Vermont, Virginia, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, Utah, and Colorado. And California is the super prize with the largest catch of delegate votes.
As Tuesday results began to trickle in with Biden an early winner in Virginia and North Carolina, and Sanders winning his home state of Vermont, a pattern arises impacting the late voters in the southern and western states of Utah, Colorado, Texas and California. As voters saw a winner in one state, did they begin to recalculate their vote before California polls closed at 8 pm? It appears that the late surge by VP Biden has made a difference.
I recall many years ago, in the 1980 General Presidential election that the national election was called in Ronald Reagan’s favor several hours before the polls closed on the West Coast - prompting concern that many voters just stayed home. Today, vote by mail systems, and the efficiency of the new voting systems mean many voters had already voted before the news arrived about Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the race. Those who voted for those candidates are considered “zombie votes.”
What matters most though is how this Presidential election sweepstakes has an impacted voter turnout in California and in particular, in Santa Cruz County where many ‘down ballot races’ for state senate, assembly, county supervisors, recall of city councilmembers and replacement candidates and local tax and school bond measures are effected by the Presidential race.
While the vote counting continues throughout California and Santa Cruz County, the final results won’t come until the end of March, it appears that the Presidential race increased voter turn-out statewide. VP Joe Biden had a long string of wins on Super Tuesday taking 10 states and Senator Bernie Sanders came away with 3 states, including California. Thus at this stage of the Presidential election cycle, it appears that it will be a two person race for the Democratic nomination. Early Wednesday morning billionaire Michael Bloomberg dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden. Senator Elizabeth Warren took it on the chin on Super Tuesday including losing her home state of Massachusetts. Her future status is uncertain as we post this eNews.
So what happened here along the Central Coast and in Santa Cruz County? Were there any surprises? You can see the ‘unofficial’ results here:
https://sccounty01.co.santa-cruz.ca.us/ElectionSites/ElectionResults/Results.
These results are for only Santa Cruz County so in some cases where a legislative district includes more than one county — the final vote tally may be different.
Let’s break it down on the local races:
18th Congressional District (includes Santa Clara, San Mateo and portion of Santa Cruz County): incumbent Anna Eshoo (D) secured a large lead but since 2012 when the California voters approved an “open primary — some refer to it as the jungle primary where the two top voter getters are in a run off in November. This applies to Congressional and state races. It appears Rishi Kumar (R) will be in the run-off.
20th Congressional District (includes Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz and portion of Santa Clara County): incumbent Jimmy Panetta (D) has a large lead but it appears that Jeff Gorman (R) has a slight lead to make the run-off.
17th Senate District (includes Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties): an open seat where Senator Bill Monning is termed out. Long time public elected official and Santa Cruz resident John Laird (D) has the lead in the race and it appears that Vicki Norhden (R) is a distant second.
29th Assembly District (includes Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito Counties): incumbent Mark Stone (D) has a commanding lead but will be in a November run-off against Shomer Banerjee (R)
30th Assembly District (includes parts of Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito Counties): incumbent Robert Rivas (D) has a large lead but will face off against Gregory Sweet (R) in November.
Santa Cruz County 1st District Supervisor (includes Live Oak, parts of Capitola, Soquel and up to Summit and parts of Scotts Valley southwest of highway 17): incumbent John Leopold has a solid lead but is shy of the 50% + 1 to avoid a run-off. Manu Koenig placed second and will be on the ballot in November.
Santa Cruz County 2nd District Supervisor (includes Aptos, portions of Capitola, LaSelva, Corralitos and part of Watsonville): incumbent Zach Friend has a commanding lead with nearly 70% of the vote tallied and will avoid a November run-off.
Santa Cruz County 5th District Supervisor (includes portions of Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley and the San Lorenzo Valley): incumbent Bruce McPherson ran unopposed and will start his third term as supervisor.
Santa Cruz Recall of Councilmember Drew Glover: At post time, it appears that with 75% of the vote tallied that the Yes on Recall leads 56% to 43%. If those numbers hold, Renee Golder has a commanding lead to replace Councilmember Glover.
Santa Cruz Recall of Councilmember Chris Krohn: The current vote tally has Yes on the Recall with 54% to 45% lead. If those numbers hold, it appears that Katherine Beiers has an 11% lead over Don Lane to replace Councilmember Krohn. Santa Cruz County Superior Judge: In the Superior Court Judge race, Nancy de la Pena looks to have won this race with 43% of the vote.
State Proposition 13 School Bond: the only state initiative on the March ballot has a 9% lead in Santa Cruz County. However, the largest school facility bond in state history was falling short of the simple majority needed in early returns Tuesday. Proposition 13 would push $15 billion in bonds to California’s schools, public universities and community colleges to upgrade facilities and build new ones. It may take a few weeks to sort out these results.
Measure R — the Cabrillo College Bond is shy of reaching the 55% voter approval threshold as of Wednesday morning with a 50.29% yes and 49.71% no. If this vote patterns holds it will be the second time in four years that the College has not secured voter approval.
Measure S — San Lorenzo Valley District Bond is also 3% shy of the 55% threshold voter approval.
Measure T and Measure U — the Santa Cruz City Schools Bond - a continuation of the current bond — but these parcel tax measures if approved have no sunset date. Both Measures have commanding leads above the 66.6% voter threshold: T at 70.36% and U at 76.64%.
Measure V — Soquel School District Parcel Tax is shy of the 2/3 voter approval threshold at 60%.
Measure W — Santa Cruz City Public Works Charter Amendment has garnered 79% of the votes.
Measure X — Santa Cruz City School Trustee District has a 76% voter approval which would create city school trustee district races instead of at-large races.
Measure Y — Watsonville Sales Tax for Public Safety requires 2/3 voter approval and has 76% of the current vote.
Measure Z — Santa Cruz Sales Tax requires a simple majority vote has received 62% voter approval.
Our summary analysis of the current March 3 results shows that the City of Santa Cruz, Watsonville and Scotts Valley voters supported tax measures to improve schools while the Soquel and Cabrillo College did not garner the necessary votes. For the congressional, state assembly — the leading voter getters were predictable incumbents. For the 17th senate district race, John Laird has a challenger but the district has not elected a Republican since redistricting in 2010. The interest of voters to change the makeup of the Santa Cruz City Council proved to be a very close but if the vote pattern holds we will have two new council members once the final tally is certified.
Since the primary election was moved to March — the Democratic controlled state legislator wanted to have California in play for the Presidential sweepstakes and it appears it worked. It is a long way from March 3 to the November 3 general election with many presidential primaries ahead of us before the two parties hold their National Conventions later this summer. As Yogi Berra once stated: “It ain’t over until it’s over.” The 2020 election cycle will be fascinating to watch.